Nicolás Maduro has ruined Venezuela, but he has everything a dictator needs to stay in power – including foreign allies.
A symbol made of broken glass: Venezuelan police officers defend the power of dictator Nicolás Maduro, which is under attack. The people are against him.
Imago
It has now been officially confirmed that Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro had the elections at the end of July falsified. The election observers from the Carter Center, who were the only reputable foreign expert commission admitted, have classified the elections as «undemocratic.» Several independent polls have come to the conclusion that the opposition candidate Edmundo González actually won the elections with more than 60% of the vote.
President Maduro cares little about the reports. He brazenly declared himself president-elect even before the official election results were announced. He broke off relations with seven Latin American countries, whose governments had dared to demand a transparent evaluation of voting results, and he has marshaled the police and military against protests across the country. Thousands of demonstrators have been arrested so far. According to unconfirmed reports, more than 20 people have already died.
The outcome of the election is thus reminiscent of Maduro’s two previous elections. There were also numerous indications of falsification in previous elections, and he also brutally crushed protests. Maduro has long been unpopular. The 61-year-old president’s record is disastrous. Three circumstances impressively demonstrate his failure:
A balance sheet of failure For decades, Venezuela was one of the most prosperous countries in Latin America. But under Maduro’s government, gross domestic product has shrunk by 75%. The per capita income of Venezuelans is now on a par with that of Bangladesh. The state minimum wage is the equivalent of around $3 a month. Three quarters of the population are poor.Venezuela has repeatedly had the highest inflation in the world in recent years. In 2018, hyperinflation stood at 1 million percent. Fourteen zeros were removed from the national currency between 2007 and 2021. The U.S. dollar is now an unofficial means of payment.According to the U.N. refugee agency, around 8 million people have left the country. This corresponds to a quarter of the population. People are fleeing because of the economic crisis and repression.
In view of this, it is astonishing that Maduro has been able to hold on to power for the past 11 years and has now extended it further. But there are various reasons for this.
1. Maduro benefits from the country’s oil reserves
At the end of 2012, the terminally ill President Hugo Chávez appointed his little-known Foreign Minister Nicolás Maduro as his successor. This made the former bus driver Maduro popular with many. Around half of Venezuelans considered him a good successor at the time. Following the death of Chávez in March 2013, Maduro’s popularity was higher than ever before.
This was due to Chávez’s charisma – and to oil. Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world. In his 14 years as president, Chávez used oil revenues to build up his power as well as a gigantic distribution apparatus. He took over the accounting of the state-owned oil company PDVSA and extracted $800 billion over 14 years. When that wasn’t enough, he went into debt abroad. China lent him $50 billion for future oil deliveries.
The oil company became a self-service store for the top echelons of the regime and the military, through which former Colonel Chávez and later Maduro secured their loyalty. It also provided loyal followers with jobs.
Due to a lack of investment and expertise, the oil concern began producing less and less oil. But nobody noticed this for a long time. The price of oil price rose from around $10 a barrel to over $100 under Chávez.
The people of Venezuela hoped that Maduro would continue the policies of his predecessor. But when he came to power, the price of oil fell to $44 per barrel within a year and a half. He had to resort to other means to secure his power. His predecessor Chávez had made provisions for this.
2. Maduro can rule in an authoritarian manner because his predecessor divided society and militarized the state
As an oil country, Venezuela’s society has always been characterized by large income disparities. But Chávez polarized the already divided society. He insulted the elite by calling them «escuálidos,» or «pale weaklings.» He blamed them for the social division of the country – and he was quite right to do so. But he sowed hatred with his tirades.
At the same time, Chávez held elections and referendums almost every year. He began restructuring the constitution and the state. He reduced the separation of powers and appointed confidants, mostly military officers, to the judiciary, administration and military. He himself ruled by decree and via television.
However, Maduro is less charismatic than his predecessor, and he also has less money at his disposal due to falling oil prices. Maduro has never been as popular as his predecessor. Even the elections in April 2013 were only narrowly won through manipulation. Once Maduro was in office, his poll ratings fell rapidly. As early as 2015, over 70% of the population rated him negatively. Little has changed since then. Maduro is using the authoritarian structures created by Chávez to rule.
The demonstrators accuse the government of electoral fraud.
Henry Chirinos / EPA
3. Maduro makes allies and the military complicit in his rogue economy
Venezuela is ranked 177th out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s list of the most corrupt countries in the world. State positions are used for personal enrichment; senior military officers are given well-paid positions in the oil companies. According to official figures from the central bank, around $500 billion in oil revenues disappeared from the balance sheets of companies in the 14 years under Chávez.
Venezuela has been banned from exporting oil since 2019 due to U.S. sanctions, while the military and other «enchufados,» or beneficiaries of the regime, organize the illegal oil trade with India and China.
Under Maduro, the military, other allies of the regime and criminal organizations are also increasingly involved in illegal gold mining in the Amazon region and cocaine smuggling from Colombia to the U.S. and Europe, according to the information service Insight Crime.
The military is at the forefront of self-enrichment. With around 2,000 generals and admirals, Venezuela has an army with more top positions than almost any other country in the world. This is strategically clever – Maduro turns the profiteers into accomplices. Around 200 Venezuelans are wanted by the U.S., including many high-ranking military officers and ministers. If the ruling government changes, they could face long prison sentences. This inevitably makes them loyal.
On the other hand, Maduro takes brutal action when he senses betrayal. His oil minister, Tareck El Aissami, was influential for many years. He was seen as one of Maduro’s possible successors. But then he became too powerful. He is now under investigation for corruption. He is threatened with a show trial and life imprisonment.
4. Maduro has built up a system of repression and surveillance with foreign aid
Maduro’s predecessor Hugo Chávez distrusted his own troops – after all, he himself had attempted a coup before his election. His role model Fidel Castro helped him. Cuba sent doctors and teachers to Venezuela in exchange for oil. And with Cuban help, Chávez also set up his own secret service, which primarily spied on the military and the state apparatus. Foro Penal, an oppositional nongovernmental organization, estimates that around half of the political prisoners in Venezuela are military personnel.
To this day, Maduro uses Cuba’s expertise in repression to hold on power. Cuba has 60 years of experience in keeping a people in check, despite scarcity and poverty. Even today, elite troops are said to have been flown in from Cuba to quell the protests.
But Maduro’s relations with Cuba are also personal. The 24-year-old school dropout Maduro had attended the Ñico López cadet school in Havana in 1986. Socialist cadets are trained there for the export of revolution.
Russia has long been the most important military ally, supplying weapons and armaments to the Caribbean for many years. The state-owned company Russian Technologies puts the value of Russian arms orders for Venezuela at $12 billion.
In the meantime, however, China seems to have become the most important supplier of repression technology, according to research by Probox Digital Observatory. Many Venezuelans receive food rations and social benefits, without which they could not survive, via electronic «fatherland cards.» The technology comes from China. The e-passports allow large parts of the population to be completely controlled, Probox observes.
The regime also uses social networks to suppress resistance in advance. Venezuela has developed into a surveillance state.
At the same time, Maduro is restricting which services citizens are allowed to use. Last Thursday, for example, he ordered the blocking of Platform X for a period of 10 days. «Twitter, now known as X, has called for hatred, fascism, civil war, death and confrontation among Venezuelans,» Maduro said during a speech. He therefore instructed the telecommunications authority Conatel to block X. He left open when the measure would come into force.
Last Monday, Maduro had already called for the WhatsApp messaging service to be uninstalled, as it was being used «to threaten Venezuela.» On Sunday, he also called for recommendations from experts on the regulation of social networks such as Instagram and Tik Tok. According to Maduro, these platforms were used to stir up hatred during spontaneous protests against his government.
5. Maduro exploits the geopolitical power shifts and the weakness of the U.S.
Venezuela’s location in the Caribbean, on the doorstep of the U.S., is paying off for Maduro. He has skillfully built up a network of anti-Western allies. The regular rumors that China or Russia could set up a military base in Venezuela are causing uncertainty in the Pentagon.
Venezuela’s location on the southern flank of the U.S. is strategically important for both China and Russia. The Caribbean and Central America can be monitored from there. This allows them to influence drug trafficking and the flow of refugees into the U.S. – both of which are highly sensitive domestic issues there.
Maduro also maintains close relations with other adversaries of the West. Turkey and Iran are said to be important sales channels for the gold produced in Venezuela. From Venezuela, there have long been weekly flights to Tehran and Istanbul.
At the same time, Maduro still has the largest oil reserves in the world. The country hardly produces any oil due to a lack of investment and corruption. But the roughly 800,000 barrels of oil per day are still pouring enough money into the coffers to keep Maduro’s supporters happy – and to keep foreign companies queuing up at the door as supplicants.
The U.S. has allowed Venezuela to legally export oil against the promise of free elections. American companies such as Chevron, as well as Repsol and Eni from Europe, are allowed to resume production to a limited extent. It is unlikely that Washington will reintroduce an embargo after the rigged elections – in the middle of the U.S. election campaign. The Democrats want to prevent high oil prices.
But Maduro also has an influence on U.S. domestic policy with refugees. Most migrants at the U.S. border now come from Venezuela.
Maduro has everything a dictator needs
Despite his disastrous government record, Maduro is likely to remain president. It even looks as if he is currently at the zenith of his power due to the country’s geopolitical rise as an ally of Russia and China. That is why he is hardly making any effort to give the impression that the elections were honest.
The Maduro case confirms what also applies to Putin: Dictators can hardly be removed from office, even if their governing is a disaster for the population. For a firm power base, the following conditions must be met: Tyrants need an efficient apparatus of power and oppression, they must have important resources and be attractive to powerful foreign allies. Maduro has all of this at his disposal.
Latest articles
Global reporting. Swiss-quality journalism.
In today’s increasingly polarized media market, the Switzerland-based NZZ offers a critical and fact-based outside view. We are not in the breaking-news business. We offer thoughtful, well-researched stories and analyses that go behind the headlines to explain relevant events in the U.S., in Europe and worldwide. To produce this work, the NZZ maintains an industry-leading network of expert reporters around the globe who work closely with our main newsroom in Zurich.
Sign up for our free newsletter or follow us on Twitter, Facebook or WhatsApp.
Source link : http://www.bing.com/news/apiclick.aspx?ref=FexRss&aid=&tid=66ba03d98e2441b2a2f177d2343ad2e5&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nzz.ch%2Fenglish%2Fwhy-venezuelas-dictator-nicolas-maduro-can-still-hold-on-to-power-ld.1843055&c=12078234258678251124&mkt=en-us
Author :
Publish date : 2024-08-11 13:00:00
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source.
