Canada have had an incredible 2024 and enter this friendly against Mexico in fine form, but El Tri will give them a run for their money.
Sep 9, 2024 • 13:32 ET
• 4 min read
Canada continue to shine in the Jesse Marsch era, and they bring impressive form into a showdown with Mexico on September 10.
Despite the strong play from the Canadians, my Mexico vs. Canada predictions expect this friendly to end in a stalemate.
Mexico vs Canada picks and predictions
My best bet:
Draw (+210 at FanDuel)
My analysis
It’s been a terrific, bounce-back summer for Canada, with Saturday’s landmark win just the cherry on top after surpassing expectations with their run to the Copa America semifinals. The arrow seems to be pointing up again, just as it did when the Canadians qualified for the 2022 World Cup.
But this is a tricky fixture for Canada on the heels of the weekend high, particularly against an opponent wounded by a disappointing summer.
Mexico had a forgettable Copa America experience, winning only one of their three group games and scoring just a single goal. That prompted a parting of ways with boss Jaime Lozano, with Javier Aguirre taking the reins for the third time.
The sting of the Copa group stage elimination wasn’t fully eased by sweeping past New Zealand at the weekend, but a statement performance against Canada would be a bigger story.
I see El Tri holding firm here and coming away with a draw. That pick also stems from the potential for both managers to shuffle their starting lineups. Will Marsch turn to Alphonso Davies again after the Bayern Munich man played the full 90 minutes on Saturday?
The Canadians have looked solid defensively since Moise Bombito’s arrival at the heart of the defense, even after losing Celtic’s Alistair Johnston to a hamstring injury at the weekend, while Mexico have tallied three clean sheets from their last four outings.
This is the second friendly in four days for these teams, and I’m wagering on a stalemate at AT&T Stadium with neither nation hitting top gear.
Mexico vs Canada same-game parlay (SGP)
Draw
Under 2.5 goals
First half Under 0.5 goals
In humid conditions, this doesn’t feel like an end-to-end thriller. Both teams are well organized defensively, and the Canadians put a lot of energy into Saturday’s emotional win over the USMNT.
That makes the Under on 2.5 total goals an attractive pick, especially with the likelihood of a flurry of second-half subs. The trends also support that, with the Under hitting in six of Canada’s last eight games.
I’m sticking to a similar script and juicing up the odds by picking a goalless first half. The Canadians have kept a clean sheet in the first 45 minutes in six of their past eight contests, and I’m wary of Marsch’s commitment to evaluating his squad depth.
While that’s beneficial for Canada in the long term, it could contribute to a cagey first half if some of the regulars in red are rested.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mexico vs Canada odds
Mexico
Canada
+130
Moneyline
=195
+210
Draw
+210
Over 2.5 (+106)
Total
Under 2.5 (-148)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Mexico vs Canada side and Over/Under analysis
Despite all the feel-good progress under Marsch, Canada have only won two of their eight games since he took over, and they enter as slight underdogs here.
It’s been a rocky stretch for Mexico since losing the Concacaf Nations League final in March, and they’ve slipped to three defeats in their seven outings since then — including a 4-0 loss to Uruguay in June.
The Mexicans have won three of the past five meetings between these teams, but the Canadians landed a 2-1 victory in their last matchup in November 2021.
Don’t overvalue the Mexicans’ three-goal effort on Saturday. They had only scored two or more goals in one of their prior seven contests, though it was encouraging to see Cesar Huerta and Luis Romo on the scoresheet against the Kiwis.
Mexico vs Canada game info
Location:
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Date:
Tuesday, 9-10-2024
Time:
8:30 p.m. ET
TV:
Fubo Sports
Weather:
Hot and humid, with temperatures in the mid-80s
Not intended for use in MA.
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Publish date : 2024-09-09 06:32:00
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