Alabama-Georgia in a game for the ages. Ole Miss falling to Kentucky with a last-second field goal miss. Utah suffering its first loss at the hands of Arizona.
With three top-10 teams going down to defeat, we’ve got the biggest shake-up yet in our College Football Playoff projections, with reverberations felt throughout the bowl matchups.
In the new, expanded 12-team playoff, the five highest-ranked conference champions will make the field along with the next seven highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be awarded first-round byes, with the other eight teams meeting at the campus sites of the Nos. 5-8 seeds.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 36-game slate of bowls, from the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 14 to the Bahamas Bowl on Jan. 4.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the CFP will play out, every week until the actual matchups are set on Selection Day on Dec. 8.
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Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games
Dec. 20-21 — ABC/ESPN or TNT Sports*
Bonagura: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 12 UNLV at No. 5 Texas
Bonagura: No. 11 Clemson at No. 6 Tennessee
Schlabach: No. 11 Missouri at No. 6 Georgia
Bonagura: No. 10 Michigan at No. 7 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 10 Clemson at No. 7 Tennessee
Bonagura: No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
* Specific times and networks for each game TBD
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: For about a half on Saturday night, Alabama looked like it was on its way to what would have been — by far — the most impressive performance of the season. Had the Tide built upon its 30-7 lead in the second half, it would have had a strong case to be the top-ranked team and No. 1 seed. That didn’t happen. But even so, the 41-34 win against Georgia still stands as the best win of the season, if not as dominant as it could have been. For now, both Georgia and Alabama are still slated to be first-round participants for games in which they would be heavy favorites.
Schlabach: Unlike Kyle, I did move the Crimson Tide to the No. 1 spot after their impressive victory over Georgia, which had won 42 regular-season games in a row (not including the SEC championship) and 16 straight road games. With quarterback Jalen Milroe and receiver Ryan Williams, the Tide have one of the most explosive offenses in the SEC. I dropped Georgia to No. 6, but the Bulldogs can redeem themselves with future road games at Texas and Ole Miss. They’ll also play surging Tennessee at home. I went with Clemson at No. 10 and Missouri at No. 11. I also considered Notre Dame, Iowa State, BYU and Michigan for the last couple of at-large spots. I went with UNLV over James Madison, Boise State and Liberty for the Group of 5 champion berth.
CFP quarterfinals
Tuesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinals at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 4 BYU
Schlabach: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Kansas State
Wednesday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinals at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Alabama
CFP quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 7 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Ohio State
CFP quarterfinals at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Miami
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: These projections will almost certainly be much different in the end, but in this scenario, Alabama as the No. 5 (vs. James Madison, then BYU at a neutral site) has a much easier path to the semifinals than top-seeded Texas (neutral site vs. Georgia). This remains a major flaw in the system that is rewarding the top four conference champions with a bye. It’s a nice reward for the champion, but in most permutations, it punishes the top seed.
Schlabach: Once again, I don’t disagree with Kyle about reseeding the field after the first-round games. In my current bracket, No. 1 Alabama would play a more difficult quarterfinal game (vs. Oregon) than No. 5 Texas (vs. Kansas State), at least on paper. I have four SEC teams advancing to the quarterfinals, along with two teams from the Big Ten and one each from the ACC and Big 12. I have the Crimson Tide playing in the Peach Bowl because I don’t think the CFP selection committee would give Georgia the advantage of playing Miami in front of a home crowd at Atlanta.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinals at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 1 Alabama
Friday, Jan. 10
CFP semifinals at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Monday, Jan. 20
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 1 Alabama
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: I have Texas as the top seed still, but in a head-to-head matchup against Alabama, it would be hard to pick against Kalen DeBoer. We saw him outcoach Steve Sarkisian in the playoff last year, so it makes sense he could do so again with the Tide. That said, we’ll go ahead and give Texas the benefit of the doubt for another week with two season-defining games coming up against Oklahoma and Georgia. Ohio State has been floating by untested — its game at Oregon on Oct. 12 is circled.
Schlabach: Once again, I have three SEC teams — Alabama, Texas and Georgia — advancing to the semifinals, along with Big Ten champion Ohio State. I think each of the three SEC teams has some flaws, but these four squads are the most impressive in the FBS for now. I have Alabama and Georgia moving on to the CFP National Championship game. Both teams have some areas to clean up, particularly in the secondary. Georgia’s penchant for slow starts and turnovers on offense cost it a victory in Tuscaloosa. We’re about to find out if Ohio State is the cream of the crop in the Big Ten.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 14
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. NC Central
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. NC Central
Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Coastal Carolina
Tuesday, Dec. 17
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Washington vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. North Texas
Wednesday, Dec. 18
Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Tulane
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: California vs. Boise State
Schlabach: California vs. Boise State
Thursday, Dec. 19
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
7 p.m., ESPN2
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Liberty vs. James Madison
Friday, Dec. 20
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: South Alabama vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. East Carolina
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Colorado
Schlabach: Virginia vs. South Alabama
Monday, Dec. 23
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Marshall vs. South Florida
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State
Tuesday, Dec. 24
Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Liberty vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Colorado State
Thursday, Dec. 26
Detroit Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Michigan State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. TCU
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Colorado
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. Georgia Southern
Friday, Dec. 27
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. TCU
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
7 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Arkansas
DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m.
Bonagura: SMU vs. Washington State
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Arizona
Schlabach: South Carolina vs. Washington State
Saturday, Dec. 28
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Memphis vs. Virginia Tech
Schlabach: Memphis vs. Syracuse
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Illinois
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Nevada vs. Texas State
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Iowa State
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Eastern Michigan vs. San José State
Schlabach: Central Michigan vs. San José State
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. Navy
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
7:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. USC
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: West Virginia vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: UCF vs. Indiana
Monday, Dec. 30
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Kentucky
Tuesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Ole Miss
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Boston College vs. Utah
Schlabach: Duke vs. Washington
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Michigan vs. LSU
Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: BYU vs. Oklahoma
Thursday, Jan. 2
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Texas A&M
Friday, Jan. 3
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Navy
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Georgia Tech
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Nebraska
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Rutgers
Saturday, Jan. 4
Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11 a.m., ESPN2
Bonagura: Sam Houston vs. Buffalo
Schlabach: Sam Houston vs. Eastern Michigan
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Publish date : 2024-09-29 07:38:00
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