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Insecurity in Haiti, weather shocks in Central America, and economic constraints in Venezuela are driving acute food insecurity across the region
Key Messages
In Haiti, gang violence and poor economic conditions continue to disrupt income-earning activities and drive high food prices. Poor households in gang-controlled metropolitan areas of Port-au-Prince are worst affected, experiencing large food consumption gaps or resorting to liquidating their assets that are indicative of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. High year-on-year inflation and erratic rainfall due to El Niño conditions are also increasing agricultural production costs and reducing crop yields, contributing to suppressed agricultural labor demand through the spring. As many rural households have shrinking livelihood opportunities and limited household purchasing power due to these shocks, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to be widespread. However, poor households in areas of Grand Sud, Ouest, Nord, and Bas Plateau have larger food reserves from recent and ongoing harvests that are expected to prevent food consumption gaps, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.
In Central America, from October to January, pockets of poor households in rural areas of the Dry Corridor who suffered significant agricultural losses due to El Niño-related rainfall deficits will rely on food purchases at high prices for a longer period, resulting in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across most of the region due to the availability of several months of food stocks from recent harvests and seasonally normal increases in cash crop labor demand on commercial farms. From February to May, however, more widespread deterioration to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes is expected. Poor households are expected to deplete their stocks from the below-average harvests and will be unable to purchase sufficient food given persistently high food prices, lower incomes, and lingering debts. An early onset of the annual lean season is anticipated by early March.
In Venezuela, poor macroeconomic conditions are expected to remain the key driver of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes – the highest area-level IPC Phase – through at least May. However, seasonal improvements in salaries, social protection benefits, remittances, and economic activity through January are expected to relatively improve household access to food, temporarily reducing the number of poorer households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in peri-urban and rural areas of the Capital District and along the border with Colombia. By February, however, inflation is expected to again outpace available government benefits and income for laborers paid in local currency (VED), and the number of poor households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to rebound. Furthermore, populations of rural smallholder farmers in Guárico and Apure – where crop yields declined due to El Niño-related weather and insufficient access to irrigation — are also expected to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes throughout the October to May outlook period.
In 2023, severe drought in Panama has led to reduced cargo allowances and vessel transit through the Panama Canal. However, these measures are expected to have a limited impact on the regional staple grain supply in Central America, Haiti, and Venezuela, where food availability is mainly supported by local production and intraregional trade and imports from North America (Mexico and the USA) that do not rely on the canal. However, if the disruption to Canal operations persists, this could press freight costs upwards through February 2024, responding to increased demand and shipment rerouting associated with trade constraints. This would, in turn, put upward pressure on regional market prices for goods passing through the Panama Canal.
Source link : https://reliefweb.int/report/haiti/latin-america-and-caribbean-food-security-outlook-october-2023-may-2024
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Publish date : 2023-12-01 03:00:00
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