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Matthew Kroenig
By Matthew Kroenig, a columnist at Foreign Policy and vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
What will U.S. foreign policy look like under the next administration? The conventional wisdom is that a Kamala Harris administration would largely represent continuity of President Joe Biden’s policies, whereas former President Donald Trump’s famous unpredictability makes the future of a Trump 2.0 foreign policy more difficult to forecast.
In fact, the opposite may be true.
Trump has already served a full term, so we have years (four of them, to be exact) of experience with what that outcome might look like. Moreover, the short list of candidates for top national security posts in a Trump 2.0 administration (Mike Waltz, Robert O’Brien, Mike Pompeo, Tom Cotton, Bill Hagerty, Richard Grenell, etc.) has been consistent for months.
On the other hand, the world doesn’t have the same experience with Harris on foreign policy. The vice president has few formal responsibilities, and her previous experience was as a state official and prosecutor, not in foreign- or defense-policy roles. Since replacing Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket in July, Harris has stuck to high-level talking points on major foreign-policy issues and hasn’t gone into much depth about a plan for winning or ending the war in Ukraine or countering Iran, for example.
Moreover, beyond speculation that her current national security advisor, Phil Gordon, would likely follow her to the White House, there hasn’t been the same informed and consistent reporting about who might occupy top cabinet posts in a Harris administration. Indeed, Harris herself might not even know yet.
Love him or hate him, the world knows what it is getting with Trump, while Harris is more of a blank slate.
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Publish date : 2024-11-01 11:38:00
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