A weak La Niña could bring drier weather to the South, wetter to the North

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Quick, do you know which La Niña is which? Most people don't but the weather experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center do, and they predict a 60% chance that a weak La Niña will form this fall and could last until March.

What would that mean? It could mean that southern areas of the U.S. and parts of Mexico could be drier. The northern U.S. and southern Canada might see wetter conditions.

La Niña is part of a natural climate cycle that can lead to extreme weather around the world, though its effects vary by region.

La Niña is the cooler phase of a global climate pattern called El Niño-Southern Oscillation. It involves changes in wind and ocean temperatures in the Pacific, which can impact weather worldwide.

El Niño, the warmer phase, happens when trade winds weaken, causing warm water to pile up near South America. During La Niña, the opposite occurs—the winds get stronger, and cooler water rises to the surface, cooling the eastern Pacific.

These changes in ocean temperatures affect the jet stream, a fast-moving band of air that influences storm patterns and rainfall. During La Niña, the jet stream shifts northward, affecting storm paths and increasing precipitation in certain areas.

A rare "triple-dip" Recently, Earth went through a rare "triple-dip" La Niña from 2020 to 2023, where La Niña conditions occurred three winters in a row, something that had only happened once before in the 1970s. Climate scientist Michelle L’Heureux from NOAA explained that La Niñas tend to last longer and recur more often than El Niño events.

Ben Cook, a climate scientist at NASA, said that while another La Niña this year would be unusual, it’s not impossible. He added that frequent La Niñas can be tough for regions already dealing with drought, like East Africa, as it could worsen dry conditions.

In the U.S., areas like the Northeast and Ohio Valley are often wetter during La Niña, with more storms due to the jet stream’s position. The central U.S. may experience more cold outbreaks, and regions like New England and the Great Lakes often see more snow, though this isn’t guaranteed. In contrast, the southern U.S. tends to be drier and warmer.

Scientists are still uncertain about how climate change affects La Niña and El Niño. Some models suggest El Niño events may become more frequent, while La Niñas may occur less often, but there’s no consensus. Climate scientist Paul Roundy notes that it’s hard to separate natural climate cycles from the influence of climate change, but the patterns we see now could shift in the future.

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