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Let’s start with the U.S. What are you expecting from the Americans at this tournament?
Martino: I am expecting and hoping for a second-place finish in this group. Uruguay is superior when it comes to overall talent. They defeated Argentina 2-0 in the qualifiers, whereas the USMNT has shown an inability to beat top-tier nations. Panama is a familiar opponent that shouldn’t pose a great threat, not to mention how much weaker Bolivia is. Anything other than advancing from the group is a failure. From there, the U.S. is most likely to play Brazil, and advancing out of that matchup would be a massive success.
Dan: Take nothing for granted with the U.S. men, but they should easily be able to get out of the group. Bolivia and Panama on home soil should be victories. Uruguay in the final group match is another story, but wins in the first two would make that match only relevant for winning the group. If the U.S. fails to get out of this group, the social media meltdown would be worth grabbing your popcorn for.
Beyond that, I expect the U.S. to lose in a quarterfinal. The likely opponents are Colombia or Brazil, the two nations the U.S. just faced in friendlies. I don’t see the U.S. getting past either, although it’s not unthinkable.
How about the rest of the CONCACAF teams? Does Mexico have a run in it?
Martino: I think Jesse Marsch and Canada have the ability to make a respectable run here in this tournament. Overall depth might be lacking for the Canadians, but they do have elite top-end talent relative to the rest of CONCACAF. Finishing second in their group isn’t out of the question when it comes to finishing ahead of Chile and Peru. Those teams are respectable, but Canada has +190 odds to advance, which is worth the risk if you believe in Marsch and the group having a lot to prove.
Dan: Some big names didn’t make the Mexico squad, which could be a good thing in the long run. Mexico needs some young players to step up, and getting minutes in this tournament will be beneficial.
However, this team doesn’t have the talent and quality of Mexico teams we’ve been accustomed to. The good news for El Tri is that the draw was kind. Group B includes Ecuador, Venezuela and Jamaica, so Mexico has a good chance to win the group and even make a semifinal if it can avoid a quarterfinal with Argentina.
Mexico can make a run if it beats teams it is capable of beating and avoids the powers in the tournaments, but I’d have a hard time ranking this team higher than sixth in the 16-team field.
Who is your pick to win the tournament?
Martino: Argentina. Picking them straight up isn’t sexy or worth that much overall. I’d rather select Argentina to win in a matchup against another side. Any of the following are strong possibilities and have decent odds: Colombia +800, Brazil +225, Uruguay at +500. Colombia getting the same exact odds as the USMNT seems very disrespectful to Colombia. Every path that sees Brazil winning the group makes life a lot easier for Argentina to make the final.
Dan: Give me Argentina. It’s boring, but if Argentina and Brazil are the top contenders, Argentina is playing better than Brazil right now. Brazil has three losses in six World Cup qualifiers (sixth in the 10-team CONMEBOL table) and was not impressive in its warm-up matches against Mexico and the U.S. They needed a 96th-minute goal to beat Mexico 3-2 and drew the Americans 1-1 a few days later.
Argentina should be playing with nothing to lose after winning the last Copa America and World Cup.
Does anyone outside of Brazil and Argentina have a shot to win?
Martino: Uruguay. I really do like this team heading into the tournament. Uruguay has a favorable group that it should win, which would help to avoid a potential matchup with Brazil. Uruguay beat Argentina in a World Cup qualifier and has the likes of Federico Valverde leading the charge. Darwin Núñez has been inconsistent in front of goal, but for the most part, the talent in this competition is something he can feast on.
Dan: A year ago, I would have never believed I’d be saying this, but Colombia has something cooking. Los Cafeteros failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup, and even though they finished third in the 2021 Copa America, they scored just four goals in six matches before the third-place match in that tournament.
Incredibly, Colombia hasn’t lost in 23 matches, a stretch that dates back over two years. Granted, missing the World Cup means there hasn’t been a major tournament during that run and 17 of those matches were friendlies. Still, Colombia has recent wins against Germany, Brazil (in a 2026 World Cup qualifier), Mexico (twice), Spain and the United States (5-1 just over a week ago). Even in friendlies, that’s a great resume.
Colombia is in what might be the toughest group (with Brazil, Paraguay and Costa Rica) but could make a run regardless.
What other predictions do you have? Top scorer? Group upsets?
Martino: I really like Santiago Giménez to be Mexico’s top scorer with a price of +250. He has really come on strong in the last 18 months, and is riding a hot streak into this tournament. A player like that on a side that desperately needs him feels like a nice play.
For the USMNT, I do like Christian Pulisic to be the team’s top scorer. That may sound obvious, but it is paying out at +400, which feels like an excellent price. This has been the best season of his club career and he is the team’s penalty taker.
To round it out, Jonathan David as Canada’s top scorer at +250. He’s consistent, the team’s best option and that’s a good price for a capable player like him.
Dan: I think Canada has a shot to get out of its group. Argentina is justifiably a big -400 favorite to win Group A, but second place could be wide open between Canada, Chile and Peru. Peru is winless and in last place in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying table. Chile’s only win in six qualifiers came against Peru.
Canada still has top-line talent in Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David. Plus, the last warm-up match was a 0-0 draw at France, which should be a confidence boost.
(Photo of Lautaro MartÃnez and Lionel Messi: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images)
Source link : https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5571080/2024/06/19/2024-copa-america-odds-predictions-argentina-brazil/
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Publish date : 2024-06-19 05:08:26
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