Rubio will have to deal in the short term with left-wing presidents in Chile and Colombia who have not aligned completely with the White House on issues such as the Ukraine war and Israel’s conflict against Hamas. There will be rough edges to smooth out with Gabriel Boric and Gustavo Petro until both countries elect new leaders in 2025 and 2026, respectively. Trump will have a longer time to improve relations with Mexico, especially on trade tariffs, with the recently elected Claudia Sheinbaum inheriting a foreign policy of give and take with the US from her predecessor Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). After initial criticism, AMLO changed gears with the first Trump administration, aiming to nurture good relations and eventually signing the US, Mexico and Canada trade agreement in 2020. He even recently called Trump ‘a friend’. With Biden, Mexico centred its diplomatic efforts on migration control and keeping commercial policy towards China at a level comfortable enough not to irritate the US Trade Department. If Trump rows back on the trade tariff threats he’s been issuing towards Mexico, bilateral relations could become based on nearshoring talks to integrate North American value chains.
Rubio, Hegseth, Trujillo and the Admiral
On 7 November, Admiral Alvin Holsey became the new US Southern Command chief in a ceremony marked by firsts as the previous commander, General Laura Richard – the first ever woman to lead SOUTCHOM – passed the baton to the first ever African-American commander. An overhauled SOUTHCOM could offer the region a fresh sense of partnership to tackle shared military and security concerns.
More importantly, Holsey could enjoy support from his political boss in Washington. Pete Hegseth, Trump’s nominee to run the Pentagon, spent a tour as a National Guardsman in Cuba where he served in Guantanamo Bay as an infantry platoon leader. Another man to be looking at is Carlos Trujillo, Trump’s ambassador to the Organisation of American States between 2017 and 2021. Born in New York to Cuban-exile parents, Trujillo had a key job in securing the Latino vote during the recent presidential campaign. He is rumoured to have a new role in dealing with the Western Hemisphere.
The combination of both Hegseth and Rubio’s experience could become a dominant force in the Washington establishment when it comes to revamping Latin American and Caribbean relations. The mixed diplomatic and military agenda led currently from Washington and Florida might go well beyond the usual foreign affairs and defence areas to include wider topics such as irregular migration, climate change and digital security. Cyberspace was one of the first issues the Pentagon pushed under the first Trump administration, with a string of partnerships signed with Chile, Argentina and Brazil. Politics aside, if Hegseth and Rubio are eager to do more policy work in the Western Hemisphere, the US-Latin America relationship could quickly turn from one of neglect to mutual appreciation.
© RUSI, 2024
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Publish date : 2024-11-22 01:03:00
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