Copa America winner predicted by Supercomputer as USMNT's chances rated

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The USMNT hopes to spring a surprise and make a deep run at the Copa America on home turf, but Gregg Berhalter's team will not win a knockout game according to a supercomputer

Christian Pulisic and the USMNT has been given only a slim chance of making a deep run at the Copa America, with Brazil among the favorites(Mark Thorstenson/ISI Photos/USSF/Getty Images for USSF) The United States Men's National Team (USMNT) has just a four per cent chance of winning the Copa America, according to a supercomputer that rates Lionel Messi's Argentina as favorites.

Gregg Berhalter's team begins their campaign against Bolivia in Dallas on Sunday, but the odds are not in their favor to make a deep run in the tournament.

A model created by VegasInsider.com ran 500,000 simulations of the tournament and concluded reigning champions Argentina is the most likely team to take the glory at the end of the tournament, with a 35.63 per cent probability of winning.

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Brazil is second-favorite with a 32 per cent chance of winning the tournament, which began this week is being staged across the United States until July 14.

There is a gulf between Argentina and Brazil and their rivals, with Uruguay rated the third-best team with a 9.62 chance of lifting the title. Colombia is fourth with a 6.3 per cent probability.

USA ranks fifth with a 4.06 per cent chance, ahead of the likes of Mexico (3.68) Ecuador (3.49), Chile (2.06) and Canada (1.49). Seven teams in the 16-team tournament have been given a less than one per cent probability of winning, with Bolivia ranked last at 0.01 per cent, narrowly behind Jamaica (0.03) and Panama (0.05).

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Berhalter's team has approximately a one in 25 chance of winning the Copa America(2024 USSF) The USMNT has been drawn in Group C alongside Bolivia, Uruguay and Panama, and Berhalter's team is predicted to comfortably navigate its way through the group stage, taking second place in the group.

However, the model predicts their run in the tournament will end soon after in the quarter-finals, where Brazil will likely be waiting if things play out as predicted.

Argentina made a winning start to the tournament on Thursday, surviving numerous defensive scares to claim a hard-fought 2-0 victory over Canada in Atlanta, with Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez getting the goals. Their Group A rivals Peru and Chile played out a 0-0 draw in Dallas on Friday.

Group B rivals Ecuador and Venezuela face off in Santa Clara on Saturday, followed soon after by Mexico vs. Jamaica in Houston before the USA makes its bow on Sunday.

Tyler Adams, who captained the U.S. at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar and hopes for a starting spot in Berhalter's midfield, says the team needs to surpass expectations and win a knockout game for the tournament to be deemed a success.

"For me it's getting past the quarter-final," the former Leeds United and RB Leipzig star said. "We need to – in a pressure situation – win in a knockout. That's going to measure a lot of our success."

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