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Grain prices followed a bevy of other commodities lower following a broad selloff that occurred on Friday. Traders continue to watch weather forecasts closely. Timely rains will hit some parts of the Corn Belt this coming week, but hotter-than-normal conditions are also likely over the next several days. Corn prices shifted more than 2% lower, while soybeans faded almost 1% lower. Wheat suffered a variable technical setback, with most contracts falling 1.25% to 2% lower.
Rains stretching from Nebraska through Wisconsin could deliver another 0.75” or more accumulations between today and Monday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Other parts of the Corn Belt could also catch some scattered showers over the weekend. Later this month, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for the Northern Plains and upper Midwest between June 21 and June 27, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for the entire central U.S.
On Wall St., the Dow faded 111 points lower in afternoon trading to 38,535 after a key consumer sentiment tracker shifted several points lower for May. Energy futures were also in the red, with crude oil easing fractionally lower but staying above $78 per barrel. Diesel and gasoline were each down around 0.5%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Thursday, commodity funds were net buyers of all major grain contracts, including corn (+6,500), soybeans (+6,500), soymeal (+5,500), soyoil (+5,000) and CBOT wheat (+3,000) contracts.
Corn
Corn prices were slashed following an ample round of technical selling on Friday. July futures lost 10 cents to $4.4850, with September futures down 8.25 cents to $4.5525.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed after tracking as much as a penny higher at an Iowa river terminal and as much as 5 cents lower at an Indiana ethanol plant on Friday.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is now predicting a 65% chance for the ENSO cycle to shift to La Niña conditions between July and September, with an 85% chance of this happening by next January. “La Nina correlates with warm and dry weather across North America (Midwest U.S.), East Asia (China) and parts of South America (Argentina and parts of Brazil) during the growing season,” according to Maxar meteorologist Chris Hyde.
Ukraine’s 2024 grain harvest is expected to move 6.9% higher year-over-year to around 56 million metric tons, per the country’s agriculture minister. That includes 1.122 billion bushels of corn and 771.6 million bushels of wheat. Ukraine is among the world’s top exporters of both commodities.
French farm office FranceAgriMer estimates that 97% of this season’s corn crop has now been planted through June 10, up from 90% a week ago. That’s a bit below 2023’s pace of 99% and the prior five-year average of 100%. FranceAgriMer attributes the somewhat slow pace to heavy rains earlier this spring.
Corn settlements on Thursday were for 607,585 contracts.
Soybeans
Soybean prices followed corn and wheat lower on a round of technical selling partly spurred by seasonal planting pressure as this year’s effort nears the finish line. The result was a double-digit setback. July futures dropped 11.25 cents to $11.7825, with August futures down 10.75 cents to $11.6750.
The rest of the soy complex faced mild to moderate cuts. July soymeal futures eased less than 0.25% lower, while July soyoil futures were down around 0.5%.
Soybean basis bids inched a penny higher at an Iowa river terminal and eased a penny lower at an Ohio elevator while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.
Four years ago, Illinois farmer Scott Trimble found himself on the bad end of a dicamba drift situation that decimated a sizable amount of his produce production. Fast forward to 2024, and the Heyworth, Ill., farmer says the landscape of herbicide use has changed dramatically in his part of the world. Click here to learn more about what’s different.
If you haven’t visited FarmFutures.com in a while, our Friday feature “7 ag stories you can’t miss” is a great way to quickly catch up on the industry’s top headlines. Today’s batch of content features new details on a carbon credit program, an update on a $2.2 billion program that addresses discriminatory lending practices and more. Click here to get started.
Soybean settlements on Thursday were for 340,434 contracts.
Wheat
Wheat prices incurred variable losses following an ample round of technical selling on Friday. Seasonal harvest pressure was partly to blame. July Chicago SRW futures dropped 8.25 cents to $6.1175, July Kansas City HRW futures fell 10.5 cents to $6.2625, and July MGEX spring wheat futures lost 12.75 cents to $6.5425.
Wheat prices have been quite volatile this past year, notes Brady Huck, risk advisor with Advance Trading. “We can argue whether the market should go up or down from here,” he adds. “But that argument is complete speculation, and being wrong can be pretty costly. My point is not to paint this market in a box that is too small going forward. We can see this market move much higher or lower. What’s important is to define risk and our cost of ownership.” Huck walks through some potential strategies in yesterday’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
France’s 2023/24 soft wheat crop ratings held steady this past week, according to FranceAgriMer, with 62% in good-to-excellent condition through June 10. That’s still significantly below year-ago levels of 85%, however. France is Europe’s No. 1 grain producer.
Drier weather in Argentina allowed the country’s wheat farmers to plant more than a fifth of this season’s crop last week. Total plantings reached 46.3% of the expected area of 15.321 million acres, per the latest report from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. Argentina, along with Australia, are the two primary wheat exporters in the Southern Hemisphere.
And finally, are you curious about what weather trends will be prevalent this summer? Farm broadcaster Mike Pearson caught up with ag meteorologist Greg Soulje to share his thoughts on the matter in today’s edition of Farm Progress America – click here to listen.
CBOT wheat settlements on Thursday were for 170,208 contracts.
Source link : https://www.farmprogress.com/markets-and-quotes/afternoon-market-recap
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Publish date : 2024-06-14 20:33:45
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