In just two years, Javier Milei, a political outsider and best known for his YouTube and TikTok virals, managed to create his own political party and defeat the most powerful political machine in Argentine history. Milei’s resounding success can be explained by three main factors.
Javier Milei won the Argentine presidential elections with 55.7 percent of the votes, defeating the Peronist candidate Sergio Massa, who received 44.3 percent. This victory is unexpected for several reasons: for the first time since the recovery of democracy in Argentina, a presidential candidate obtained 55 percent of the votes. He has also achieved majority support in 20 of the 23 provinces of the country and the city of Buenos Aires. This victory also made him the first openly declared “liberal-libertarian politician” in the world to win an election.
In just two years, Milei, a political outsider and best known for his YouTube and TikTok virals, managed to create his own political party (“La Libertad Avanza -Freedom Advances) and defeat the most powerful political machine in Argentine history, the Peronismo. Since 2016, primarily through his television appearances, book presentations, YouTube videos, and public lectures in parks, Milei has garnered a strong following among young people, forming his initial support base. After entering politics in 2021 by winning a seat in the Chamber of Deputies, he increasingly gained support across society, including in working-class neighbourhoods. Much of his campaign discourse was inspired by texts from “classic liberal” authors like Raymond Aron or Milton Friedman, as well-known authors from the libertarian movement like Murray Rothbard or Ayn Rand.
In a highly complex social, economic, and political context, Milei’s resounding success can be explained by three main factors. The first is economic and social crisis. With an annual inflation rate of more than 140 percent, a devaluation of the currency at around 4.7 percent per month throughout 2023, and a poverty rate exceeding 40 percent, Argentina is facing one of the worst economic and social crises in its recent history.
The second is a discourse of total rupture with the “political caste.” Milei’s anti-establishment discourse against what he calls the political caste has a strong resonance with people who had previously demanded the resignation of De la Rua in 2001 and crowned Mauricio Macri as president in 2015. This “total rupture” and “anti-establishment” discourse allowed him to convince Argentines to “dynamite” the system and seek a radical change.
The third is the support of the anti-Peronist centre-right. Perhaps never before seen in Argentina, the centre-right decided that it had “lost the battle, but not the war” against the ruling party. Thus, and in spite of the confrontations during the presidential debates, the explicit support of the centre-right for the ballotage meant an increase of 6.4 million votes in favour of Milei; a resounding difference that contributed to his victory.
Milei has become known for his anti-progressive views on all aspects: Keynesian economics, socialism, feminism, and the welfare state, as well as for his foreign policy orientation towards countries with free-market economies that he considers to be truly democratic. He has repeatedly stated that he will not “deal with Communists,” and is not interested in making deals with China. He announced that he might break relations with Cuba and Venezuela, and even with Brazil. For Milei, foreign policy should be oriented toward the “Civilized West,” giving strong support to the US, the EU, and Israel. He even proposed organising a summit of Latin American countries backing Ukraine in its war against Russia.
Milei’s phenomenon largely grew from the grassroots and initially flew under the radar of political analysts, as well as the political and economic elites. It imbued social discontent with an “anarcho-capitalist” ideology, creating its own demand. His slogans like “The elite is afraid” and “Long live freedom, damn it!” combined with a rocker aesthetic set Milei apart from the staid old liberal conservatives.
After his victory on 19 November, a spontaneous crowd flooded the streets in celebration. Milei voters combine anti-political elite views with a new kind of hope associated with a discourse marked by messianism, along with some reactionary proclamations. Milei presented himself as the “liberator” of the Argentine people from “statism” (this has been perceived by people as a machine for generating “gnocchi’s” as they say in Argentina; that is, people who gain a position in the public service in exchange for a vote) and “socialist policies” perceived as the main reason for an extreme network of taxes and regulations that have not translated into effective social policies on security, health, and education, but rather paradoxically culminated with a rampant decay compared to the previous century (people believe they ended up with only a virtual “welfare state,” with one of the highest tax rates in Latin America).
Now, we will have to wait to see how his program will materialise without having his own political cadres in regional governments and no majority in Congress. Due to his high voting in regions, as well as his new political alliances, it has been hinted that his cabinet will be a blend of Milei’s supporters and Macri’s allies, with former Macrist presidential candidate Patricia Bullrich playing a central role. The role of Vice President Victoria Villarruel will be very important in the next Milei government.
For now, Milei has been receiving a positive response from international markets. Because he promised during his campaign that “everything that can be in the hands of the private sector will be in the hands of the private sector,” Wall Street shares of the state-owned company YPF rose by 36 percent, as did Argentine bonds, which increased by 6 percent. Other companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange have followed suit, such as Transportadora Gas del Sur, which also saw a significant rise of 22 percent, and Pampa Energía, which rose 7 percent. The banking sector has seen similar gains.
Similarly, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, congratulated Milei on social media, stating further: “We look forward to working closely with him and his administration in the coming period.” This is important because Milei’s economic team will have to negotiate the extended facilities program with the IMF, which seeks to repay the Stand By credit taken by former President Macri in 2018 for US$45 billion.
However, there are still several issues up in the air that will test Milei in his transition from libertarian ideologue and YouTuber to politician and statesman. The first has to do with the sustainability of his monetary policy: Milei has said that he requires officials who are capable of implementing his proposals to dollarise the economy and close the Argentine Central Bank, regardless of their political sector, which has caused delays in the appointment of the Ministers of Economy and the President of the Central Bank.
The second has to do with the sustainability of his fiscal policy: Milei has said that not a peso more than what enters the public treasury will be spent and that these costs will be paid by politicians and not the common Argentine citizen. This has raised many questions about the possible privatisation of public works halfway through the payment of salaries and year-end bonuses, pensions, retirements, and others.
The third has to do with foreign policy: after stating that he will only do business with the “civilized” side of the world and that “the private sector” should handle business with China, Brazil, Russia, and other countries whose ideological orientation he does not sympathize with, Milei will have to decide what to do regarding MERCOSUR and its recent entry to BRICS. It is still too early to draw conclusions, but undoubtedly, the Milei we will see as president will be compelled by reality to be different from the Milei we saw in the campaign.
Anthony Medina Rivas Plata (Peru) is Ph.D. (c) in International Relations, Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Professor of Political Science at the Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos and Universidad Católica de Santa María. Associate Researcher at the Institute of Andean Political Studies and Advisory Board Member of the International Association for Political Science Students (IAPSS).
Lara Jeich (Argentina) holds a Master’s Degree in International Studies by the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Member of INNOVAES, an Argentinian Think Tank, and contributor to the International Association for Political Science Students (IAPSS), she is currently pursuing a cybersecurity certification, specializing in cyber threat intelligence and cyberwar.
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Source link : https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/javier-milei-from-libertarian-ideologue-to-president-of-argentina/
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Publish date : 2023-12-01 03:00:00
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