Storm tracking map from the National Hurricane Center for Tuesday, September 17, 2024.
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2024 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Things are a bit calmer in the Atlantic and Gulf Tuesday morning but there’s still a significant amount of activity. While Tropical Storm Gordon continues to churn, it’s a number of tropical waves that are getting attention. Here’s the Tuesday update from the National Hurricane Center:
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Sep 17 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC.
… SPECIAL FEATURES…
Tropical Depression Gordon is near 19.0N 48.8W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed within 120 nm south and west of the center, while only 60 nm to the east and north. Scattered showers are seen within 300 nm to the east of the center. Peak seas are presently to near 10 ft. The depression is moving slowly westward and a turn toward the north is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north- northeast on Wednesday. Gordon could gradually re-intensify by midweek and become a tropical storm again.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website – https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Gordon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at http://www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A 1008 mb low is near 29N49W, while a cold front extends from the low to 26N53W and then to another low near 30N62W. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring north of 27N and between 43W and 48W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to near gale-force northerly winds to the west of the low and north of the frontal boundary and fresh to strong southerly winds east of the low. Seas are currently 8-12 ft in the area described. The low pressure will move southwestward over the next few days and weaken late this week as Gordon moves northward. Seas will build over the next day or so. Peak seas of 12 to 14 ft in NE swell will cover an area from 27.5N northward to 31N between 47W and 55W Tue morning through Wed afternoon. Strong to near gale-force NE winds will also accompany these peak seas during the same time frame, with gale force winds expected just N of the area. Significant wave heights are forecast to gradually begin to subside late Wed into Thu.
… TROPICAL WAVES…
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 20N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered showers are occurring from 06N to 15N and between 18W and 31W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 kt. The southern portion of the trough axis is enhancing the scattered showers and thunderstorms over northern Colombia.
A tropical wave is along 89W, extending from southern Yucatan to El Salvador and into the Eastern Pacific. A few showers are noted near this boundary.
… MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 14N17W through the coast of Senegal and continues west-southwestward to 11N29W and then to 16N43W. Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on convection near the monsoon trough / ITCZ.
… GULF OF MEXICO…
A broad upper level trough over the eastern United States and a stationary front in the NE Gulf result in scattered showers over much of the southern half of the basin. Generally dry continental air dominates the northern portion of the Gulf, suppressing the formation of showers and thunderstorms. The weak pressure pattern promotes moderate or weaker winds and slight seas.
For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters supporting generally light to gentle winds and slight seas into Thu. Locally moderate to fresh winds may pulse in the Bay of Campeche nightly through the middle of the week. A cold front moving through the Gulf late week will support moderate NE winds across the basin.
… CARIBBEAN SEA…
Divergence aloft and abundant moisture continues to produce strong showers and thunderstorms over much of Cuba and spilling into the waters south of the island. Similar convection is noted off NW Colombia and eastern Panama. Drier conditions are found in the rest of the basin, especially in the NE and north-central Caribbean.
The pressure gradient between a broad 1028 mb ridge off New England and lower pressures in northern South America result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are present off northern Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-6 ft are evident in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will continue to support fresh trades across much of the basin through Wed. Strong winds and locally rough seas will be possible off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia into Wed night. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and slight seas will then occur across central portions of the Caribbean Thu into the weekend, with gentle to moderate winds occurring across NW and SW portions of the basin
… ATLANTIC OCEAN…
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Gordon and the Gale center in the central Atlantic.
A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N76W and continues to the just south of Melbourne, Florida. Divergence aloft and abundant moisture supports scattered showers and a few thunderstorms west of 73W. The strongest convection is occurring over central Cuba and in the waters between Cuba and the central Bahamas. The rest of the SW North Atlantic (west of 55W) is under the influence of a broad 1028 mb ridge off New England that forces fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds south of 22N and between 69W and 72W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere west of 55W.
In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, outside of the influence of TD Gordon and the Gale center discussed in the Special Features, broad ridging dominates, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, residual rough seas off the coast of northeast Florida, generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight currently located inland over the Carolinas, will subside into Tue morning. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will pulse off the coast of Hispaniola through Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas will develop north of 25N and east of 65W on Tue as a surface low currently located near 30N49W strengthens. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the rest of the basin.
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Publish date : 2024-09-16 22:45:00
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