Aside From Hurricane Ernesto, An Eerie Calm In The Atlantic, Caribbean

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Hurricane Tracking map for Ernesto from the National Hurricane Center. (NHC).

BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2024 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — While Hurricane Ernest continues on a track that is likely to cause big problems for Bermuda, there is a notable calm across the rest of the Atlantic and Caribbean areas that tend to be watch areas for hurricane development. While this is still expected to be an extremely active hurricane season — meaning there’s a lot more to come — nothing seems to be forming right now. Here is the Thursday afternoon update from the National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Aug 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC.

… SPECIAL FEATURES…

Hurricane Ernesto is centered near 25.0N 69.2W at 15/1500 UTC or 500 nm SSW of Bermuda, moving N at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Ernesto continues to strengthen as it moves north, with large curved bands of convection surrounding the center of Ernesto. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails from 22N to 30N between 64W and 72W. Seas of 12 ft or greater are within 270 nm NE, 240 nm SE, 150 nm SW, and 180 nm NW quadrants, with maximum estimated seas up to 31 ft. Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website – https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Ernesto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at http://www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

… TROPICAL WAVES…

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W from 05N to 21N, moving west at 10 kt. No significant convection accompanies this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W from 06N to 15N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 51.5W and 57W.

… MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Mauritania near 20.5N16W and extends southwestward to 11N25W, then westward to 12.5N47W. Scattered moderate to strong convention is noted along and within 330 nm south of the monsoon trough, between 17W and 37W.

… GULF OF MEXICO…

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over the Bay of Campeche, south of 22N, and to the W of a surface trough analyzed in the eastern Bay of Campeche. To the NE, a weak and slow-moving cold front extends from central Florida W-NW across the northeastern Gulf and into the southern Mississippi coast. Scattered moderate convection is developing over the coasts of southern Mississippi and far southeastern Louisiana, and portions of the northern Gulf north of 28N between 88W and 91W. More widely scattered moderate convection is developing in the central and eastern Gulf due to convergent surface winds generally along 26N. Elsewhere, weak high pressure over the northern Gulf is supporting light to gentle winds over much of the basin along with seas of 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across most of the basin into early next week. High pressure will build modestly across the NE Gulf Thu night through Fri night to produce moderate to fresh easterly winds and a mild increase in seas. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the period.

… CARIBBEAN SEA…

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Ernesto.

Scattered moderate convection is developing in the SW Caribbean in the vicinity of both the Panama Low and the eastern extension of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. No other notable convection is ongoing across the basin at this time. Scatterometer data depicted moderate to fresh SE winds over the E Caribbean east of 701W, while light to gentle E to NE winds prevail elsewhere across the basin. Seas of 4 to 7 ft continue across the eastern basin between 63W and 73W. Slight seas prevail across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, Ernesto will continue to move away from the Caribbean. In its wake, high pressure will gradually build westward along 22N late Fri into early next week, bringing a return to a more typical trade wind flow across the basin. A tropical wave along 54W is accompanied by scattered thunderstorms and gusty winds. This wave will move across the Tropical N Atlantic waters later today through tonight, and into the eastern Caribbean Fri while weakening. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean through Fri evening, then return Sun night and expand across the central Caribbean into early next week.

… ATLANTIC OCEAN…

Please see Special Features section above for more information about Hurricane Ernesto.

A broad wind surge has accompanied Ernesto for the past few days, with fresh to strong winds north of the storm extending to 28.5N. This has produced a large wave field moving in synch with Ernesto, with seas of 8 to 12 ft, and higher near Ernesto, extending from 20N to 29N between 63W and the southeast Bahamas along 75W.

Away from Ernesto, a weak frontal boundary extends from central Florida eastward along 27.5N to near 75.5W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm south and 100 nm north of this boundary. All other convection in the Atlantic is associated with Ernesto, tropical waves or the monsoon trough. High pressure prevails across the tropical and subtropical waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 38N28.5W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail across the central and E Atlantic between 35W-60W. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail over much of the waters elsewhere E of 35W, except for pockets of fresh to strong winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft between the Canary Islands and near the African coast between 21N and 23N. S of 20N, Gentle to locally moderate E to NE winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, Ernesto will move to 26.6N 68.7W this evening, 28.5N 67.5W Fri morning, 30.3N 66.3W Fri evening, then pass very near Bermuda at 32.0N 65.5W Sat morning, and continuing northward to 33.6N 65.1W Sat evening and beyond. A weak frontal boundary extends from near Bermuda to central Florida and will drift southward across the northwestern part of the area, and stall to the NW of Ernesto by Fri, producing moderate to fresh NE winds behind it. Large swell from Ernesto will spread W of 75W today through Fri night before subsiding Sat through Sun. Conditions should improve across the basin Sun into early next week in the wake of Ernesto.

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Aside From Hurricane Ernesto, An Eerie Calm In The Atlantic, Caribbean

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