A new tropical threat is brewing in the Caribbean, and there are increasing signs the ingredients needed for a tropical storm or hurricane to form are coming together.
The system, which is currently made up of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America, is expected to develop into a tropical depression during the next several days, the National Hurricane Center said in an update Sunday morning.
“Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system during the next several days,” forecasters said.
The tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week.
The chances of the system developing over the next seven days are 70%, according to forecasters. If the storm strengthens into a tropical storm, the next named storm for the 2024 Hurricane season would be Helene.
A number of computer forecast models depict a strong tropical storm or hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by the end of this week, but there still remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, with several potential outcomes, according to forecasters at FOX Weather.
Now is the time to be on guard, said FOX Weather Meteorologist Michael Estime. While the system so far seems to be trending farther east in the Gulf, the entire coast from Texas to Florida could be impacted.
Through Monday, the development chances for the disturbance will likely continue to increase, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form in the western Caribbean by Tuesday, forecasters said.
From there, hurricane watches will most likely be issued for portions of the Gulf Coast. The storm could make landfall somewhere between Louisiana and Florida by Thursday or Thursday evening as a strong tropical storm or hurricane, according to forecasters.
By Friday, the storm will likely begin to weaken as it moves inland across the Southeast. However, it will continue to produce heavy rain and gusty winds along its path.
Helene comes on the heels of Francine, which made landfall in Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane before quickly weakening. It dumped several inches of rain on the South, causing flooding, and a storm surge topped four feet in southern Louisiana, which put communities in Dulac and Cocodrie underwater.
The hurricane center is also keeping its eye on two other areas of interest, both in the Atlantic Ocean.
Near Africa’s west coast, there’s a westward moving tropical wave that could form a tropical depression. Forecasters gave this system a 40% chance of development over the next seven days.
And then there’s an area of low pressure area located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda that has not become better organized since Saturday, the hurricane center said. Despite being embedded in a very dry environment, a short-lived tropical depression cannot be ruled out. Forecasters gave this system a 20% chance of development over the next seven days.
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Publish date : 2024-09-22 06:07:00
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