It can be argued that the auguries for this year’s international climate change conference already looked dark, even before Donald Trump’s election victory last week. That the returning US President is an unapologetic climate sceptic, however, will hardly lighten the mood when COP29 opens in Baku on Monday.
One of Trump’s signal acts in his first presidential term was to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate agreement, and he is fully expected to do the same again, four years after Joe Biden took the US back in. Such back and forth is no good for any political process. But it makes for particular difficulties when the country concerned is the richest in the world, and the hoped-for agreement is about not just good intentions, but money – specifically the transfer of as much as $1tn from the rich world to help underwrite climate efforts in poorer countries.
The United States will be represented at Baku by a strong team of senior officials, but the US has now begun its transition towards what is bound to be an administration of a very different stripe, including in matters of climate. For all the goodwill the outgoing officials may express and for all the financial pledges they may make, these are likely to be worth nothing after 20 January next year.
The US election result, however, is not the only cloud hanging over this COP. The attendance list has become steadily depleted, compared with COP28 this time last year. Many key countries will be represented at less than head-of-state or head-of-government level. They include the original BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India and China.
European leaders will also be less in evidence. The German chancellor will be staying to deal with the collapse of his coalition government. The president of France also has domestic issues to address, and the president of the EU Commission will not be attending either, as the EU finalises its top appointments.
The venue has not been without controversy either, at least in the Western world. Last year Azerbaijan seized the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia by force; the country’s human rights record leaves much to be desired; and far from decreasing production of fossil fuels in its resource-reliant economy, it is increasing its output of gas – largely in response to the flight of EU countries from trade with Russia.
Nor is the wider context for COP29 in any way auspicious. This year is set to be the hottest on record, and also the first year when temperatures rise more than the 1.5-degree Celsius target above pre-industrial levels. In the northern hemisphere alone, this past summer and autumn have seen fierce forest fires, a resurgence of hurricanes, and the recent flood disaster in Spain – all of which, experts see as exacerbated, if not actually caused, by climate change.
Nor was it a good omen for Baku when UN talks in Colombia on nature conservation collapsed without agreement two weeks ago. All this has been happening at a time when climate change seems to have been slipping down national agendas, as governments direct their cash towards what might seem more urgent priorities, and even China’s economy has slowed. COP29 thus has its work cut out.
Before we succumb to despair in the belief that nothing can be done, however, it should also be recognised that at least some of the clouds gathered over Baku this week may also contain silver linings, even if effort may be needed to find them. The first is that the US election result is already spurring talk about the need for closer cooperation among other countries – especially, but not only, in Europe, and talk might just produce action.
The absence of so many national leaders this year might not only reduce the razzamatazz – as well as the fleets of polluting jets – but mean that officials who really know their portfolios can get down to work. Let’s not apologise either for acknowledging a certain parochial consideration. Before the past two COPs, the level of UK government representation, and commitment, was uncertain; in the event, the then prime minister, Rishi Sunak, turned up at both, but so fleetingly that you could have blinked and missed him.
This year, the King will not be there, but the prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, and the energy secretary, Ed Miliband, have said they will be playing a full part. UK governments all too often claim to want to lead any collective enterprise they join, but on climate, Miliband may have had a point when he spoke of COP29 as offering the UK an opportunity to lead. With so many other governments in disarray or otherwise engaged, climate could be a fruitful area where post-Brexit Britain could at least help to give a regional – if not global – lead.
And whether or not COP29 manages to agree on the trillion-dollar transfer that has been demanded, what is certain is that the voices of the Global South will be heard more loudly and, it is to be hoped, more respectfully than before. It is also time for the rich world to take note of China’s innovative efforts to develop a green economy, which could have lessons for us, if we choose to listen.
The COPs have a mixed record; they may often generate more heat than light. Overall, though, the process has advanced climate commitments, if slowly, and in a more inclusive direction. To have reached COP29 is not nothing. We hope for an agreement that shows the richer part of the world is willing to put its money where its mouth is, so dispersing some of the looming clouds in good time for next year’s COP30 in Brazil.
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Publish date : 2024-11-10 06:48:00
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