ome analysts have described Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as a thorn in the side to U.S. foreign policy efforts and a potential threat to the global international order. From Lula’s coziness with China and Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro to efforts to negotiate with Russia toward a solution in Ukraine and support for desire to expand the BRICS as a new global governance mechanism, the Lula administration’s efforts to reposition Brazil’s geopolitical status have drawn concerns from U.S. policymakers and analysts.
These analyses of Lula’s foreign policy often suggest that Lula’s foreign policy breaks with Brazil’s traditional approach to global affairs. But Lula’s strategy is not new or an abrupt change. These changes may seem stark after the tenure of Jair Bolsonaro—the “Trump of the Tropics” whose close ties with the Trump administration, including seeking and receiving Major Non-NATO Ally Status. However, Lula’s approach echoes not only his previous tenure, but also is reflective of a long legacy of Brazilian foreign policy—a desire for greater autonomy and respect on the international stage.
Brazil’s Quest for Respect
Brazil has a long and proud history of seeking to establish itself as a diplomatic powerhouse in global affairs. Dating back to the days of the Baron of Rio Branco (1845–1912)—whose name is now used as a moniker for the Brazilian Foreign Service—has sought to leverage diplomacy to solve conflict with and between its neighbors. Its success in negotiating for peaceful resolutions in the Americas along with its history as a colony, size, and geographic position have led Brazil to push for a greater and more equitable position in the international system. Over the course of the 20th century, there were multiple key moments when Brazil sought to expand its role and shape the international system.
From early efforts to develop global governance mechanisms, Brazil has been a central player and critic of inequality within the international system. Brazil was an early critic of inequalities built into the League of Nations that created different levels of countries within the organization—resulting in their withdrawal from the organization. Brazilian diplomats would also play a critical role in the development of the post-World War II order, playing a key role in negotiations around the development of the United Nations. More recently, Brazil has been a major player in trade negotiations—notably championing developing agricultural states during the Doha Round of World Trade Organization negotiations.
During Lula’s first tenure as President of Brazil, Lula took steps to assert Brazil’s independence and influence on the global stage. In addition to embracing the Goldman Sachs monicker for emerging economies to create the BRICS political body—along with Russia, India, China, and, later, South Africa—the Lula administration took an active stand on numerous foreign policy issues. These included working alongside Turkey to try to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran, formally recognizing Palestine, and supporting the development of new regional governance organizations including the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC). All of these actions were viewed as counter to U.S. interests and the Obama administration even shot down the Iranian nuclear deal. These continued efforts to position Brazil on the international stage led scholars David Mares and Harold Trinkunas to refer to Brazil as an “Aspirational Power.”
Positioning Brazil
It is worth highlighting two key ways in which Brazil has sought to position itself over the years—as a voice for Latin America and as a voice for what is now referred to as the Global South. These efforts have allowed Brazil to attempt position itself as a major player on the international stage. However, the diversity of preferences and actors that make up both the Latin American and Caribbean region and the Global South have hampered these efforts leading to varying degrees of success in Brazil’s efforts.
While Brazil often seeks to position itself as a voice for Latin America in international affairs, the government has faced challenges from other Latin American nations in this regard. Despite being the largest country in the region—economically, geographically, and by population—Brazil is an outlier from the region in a number of key ways. These include Brazil’s unique history as a Portuguese colony as well as its size and economy driving large differences between it and its neighbors. These differences as well as other regional leaders’ efforts to speak for the region have hampered Brazil’s efforts to become the voice representing the region on the international stage. Brazil has also sought to position itself as a voice for the Global South—as evidenced from its role in the Doha round and in the development of the BRICS. While Brazil has been effective at leveraging this role in these specific junctures, the diversity and divergent identities of the Global South have made finding a unified voice or speaker elusive to nearly every country who has tried.
The Country of the Future?
The common refrain—that “Brazil is the country of the future and always will be”—reflects Brazil’s difficulties in attaining a greater position on the international stage. As Lula and Brazil continue to strive for greater global recognition, it would be wise to examine two of the challenges that have hindered Brazil’s ascent in the past—domestic political–economic issues and over–playing geopolitical competition.
Brazil’s ups–and–downs on the global stage often parallel domestic political and economic challenges. Like many countries in Latin America, Brazil has struggled to overcome the boom–and–bust cycles of the commodity market—creating economic headwinds that have often limited Brazil’s ability to engage more holistically on the international stage. While Brazil has been able to leverage high commodity prices to better position itself globally, the boom times come to an end. This creates domestic and political challenges at home that hinder Brazil’s ability to promote itself as a global power.
While domestic challenges help to explain some of Brazil’s inability to become a major global player, its foreign policy strategy has also created challenges for the country. Perhaps the clearest example of this comes from Getulio Vargas’s efforts in the lead up and during World War II. While Vargas sent troops to support the Allies in the European theater, allowed the United States to position troops on the Brazilian bulge for its defense and to enter Africa, and even secured Roosevelt’s support to be a member of the UN Security Council, Vargas’s efforts to hedge by engaging with both Nazi Germany and the Allies prior to the U.S. entering the war left a sour taste in the mouth of the Allied European powers—who would put an end to Brazil’s ambitions of joining the UN Security Council.
Lula’s Challenge
As Lula seeks to reposition Brazil globally, he will face challenges that were not present during his previous term. Gone are the boom years of Lula’s first two terms as president. While Brazil—and much of Latin America—benefited from a commodities boom at the turn of the century, fiscal constraints are much tighter now. Furthermore, Lula must contend with a greater degree of political polarization than he previously faced—as evidenced by Bolsonaro-supporters’ efforts to overturn election results.
Similarly, geopolitical dynamics have changed since Lula was last in office. While the United States largely embraced China in the first decade of the 21st century. Today, the United States views China as a competitor and is increasingly concerned about its influence in the Americas. Likewise, while there were concerns surrounding a resurgent Russia under Putin, Europe and the United States largely maintained cordial relations with the country. Following the invasion of Ukraine, this has shifted radically and more nations view Russia as a threat to the liberal international order. These shifts have made analysts more concerned about Lula’s engagement with both countries.
Analysts should understand that Lula’s foreign policy mirrors Brazil’s historical and his own foreign policy. However, while Lula was able to pursue an active and engaged foreign policy that sought to place Brazil at the pinnacle of the global stage, he would be wise to understand the current geopolitical and domestic limitations of this approach. If Brazil is to become the country of today, Brazilian foreign policy must adjust to the shifting landscape and carve out a path that does not leave the country behind.
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Publish date : 2024-07-24 07:29:31
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