The Intersolar South America trade show drew 650 exhibitors and 55,000 visitors in August, highlighting industry growth with new pavilions on storage and electric mobility. Brazil is on track to reach 47.2 GW of installed solar capacity by the end of this year, with 11 GW of new PV capacity additions, according to Brazilian PV association ABsolar.
September 9, 2024 Lívia Neves and Emiliano Bellini
From pv magazine Brazil
The 2024 Intersolar South America, held in late August in Sao Paulo, showcased the resilience of the Brazilian PV market in the face of global challenges such as overcapacity, price pressure, and consolidation. The event expanded in size and scope this year, featuring two new pavilions dedicated to storage and electromobility.
“The event registered over 650 exhibitors, approximately 55,000 visitors and about 2,500 conference attendees,” Florian Wessendorf, managing director of event organizer Solar Promotion International GmbH, told pv magazine. “Last year, we had around 550 exhibitors and for this year we had targeted to cross the 600 threshold.”
Wessendorf said this year’s event saw a higher level of international participation among exhibitors than last year, with 55% coming from abroad and 45% from Brazilian companies. This shift contrasts with last year’s trend, where the majority of the participants were Brazilian. Wessendorf claimed that, given ongoing industry consolidation, this trend could potentially reverse next year.
The size and success of the event highlights the strong growth trajectory of Brazil’s PV market. Developers in the nation deployed about 10 GW in 2023 and are expected to add another 10 GW to 12 GW this year.
ABsolar originally called for 9 GW of new solar capacity for 2024, but has now raised its forecast to 11 GW. Yet despite a favorable long-term outlook, the industry faces short-term challenges.
Since blackouts in August 2023, Brazil has experienced more frequent outages in centralized generation, with some generators seeing up to 80% of expected energy lost. These outages mainly occur on weekends, when consumption is lower.
ABsolar estimates that grid operator-imposed outages have cost around BRL 300 million ($53.3 million). French company Voltalia has projected a €40 million ($44.2 million) impact on its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in 2024 due to renewable generation cuts. Reimbursement for energy losses caused by transmission system restrictions remains unresolved, with only a few cases expected to be reimbursed.
ABsolar Board Director Ronaldo Koloszuk said that electricity consumption will rise due to energy electrification and economic decarbonization once these issues are resolved. In distributed generation, energy suppliers have reported grid saturation issues, often reversing power flow to deny new connection requests.
“Of every 100 consumer units in the country, only four are supplied by solar. In Australia, there are 30. So there is still a lot of room to grow,” said Koloszuk.
Industry associations have deemed the existing regulations inadequate and are now backing a legislative solution. Bill 624/2023, which amends law 14,300, would require distributors to present technical studies to justify any limitations on electricity injection from microgeneration systems (up to 75 kW).
A coalition has formed to push for this proposal in Congress, including the National Confederation of Agribusiness and the Brazilian Micro and Small Business Support Service (SEBRAE).
Public policy
Despite challenges in connecting both centralized and distributed generation, solar power continues to expand in Brazil, in line with global trends. By the end of 2023, global solar power capacity had reached 1,581 GW, with 407 GW added that year. The sector could hit 2 TW in 2024 with an additional 544 GW, and it is projected to reach 5.1 TW by 2028.
This growth stems from the growing competitiveness of PV technology in various applications, including floating and agrovoltaic systems.
Brazil ranked sixth in accumulated solar generation capacity at the start of 2024 and added 15.4 GW, making it the third country with the most new installations. However, Brazil still lacks public policies with specific renewable energy targets.
ABsolar President Rodrigo Sauaia, speaking at the opening of Intersolar 2024, suggested that Brazil could achieve 100% renewable electricity by 2030 and set broader goals to clean up its energy mix.
“We need to balance the scales, to accelerate. As long as the public sector is supporting fossil fuels, they will have more strength,” said Sauaia. “The incentives for renewables, both for distributed generation and for large projects, are legally set to end. The incentives for fossil fuels are not set to end.”
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