Friday, June 21: 1am – Argentina v Canada
Copa America 2024 Group A match – Atlanta, Georgia (USA)
TV: Premier Sports 1
Handicap Betting: Argentina (-1)
Argentina and Canada could hardly have had more different preparations for the Copa America.
2026 World Cup joint-hosts Canada embarked on a pre-tournament tour of Europe that saw them lose heavily against the Netherlands before earning an extremely credible 0-0 draw against France.
They have won just two of their last six games, however, with those victories coming against the footballing powerhouses of Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago.
Argentina, on the other hand, have warmed up by winning five games on the spin, including impressive victories over Brazil and Ecuador and less impressive victories over Guatemala and El Salvador.
The difference between the two sides’ performances at the 2022 World Cup was also night and day, with Canada finishing as the joint-worst team in the tournament and Argentina obviously finishing as champions.
It would be very surprising if Argentina failed to register a comfortable victory in the Copa America opener in the early hours of Friday.
Lionel Messi to score anytime
It is hardly the most original shout to tip Lionel Messi to get on the scoresheet, but the value is too good to be ignored.
He has been in excellent form for Inter Miami this season, scoring 14 goals in 15 appearances for the MLS side, while he also scored a brace in Argentina’s victory over Guatemala.
Messi has now scored an incredible 108 goals in 182 appearances for his country, including 28 goals in his last 24 games.
He has ruthlessly put to bed any myths that he does not perform on the international stage and has excelled at the last two tournaments he’s taken part in, scoring 13 goals in 14 games across the 2021 Copa America and the 2022 World Cup.
He has been excelling against MLS defenders all season and will come up against a similar standard of defender here. It would be madness not to back him to score anytime when he is so close to even money (at the time of writing).
Lautaro Martinez to have 4 or more shots
Lautaro Martinez has never truly replicated his club form at international level and always seems to struggle to put chances away in the blue and white of Argentina.
His record of 24 goals in 58 games is nothing to be sneered at, to be sure, but it is far worse than his record of a goal in every other game for Inter Milan.
Martinez missed a hatful of high-profile chances in the World Cup final against France, also butchering a number of less high-profile (but equally scoreable) opportunities in their group game against Poland and their round-of-16 win over Australia.
That, however, highlights that Martinez consistently finds himself in shooting positions.
The Inter Milan striker averaged 3.3 shots per game in the Serie A last season, averaging a total of 4.3 shots per game in the Champions League.
Considering Argentina are likely to dominate from start to finish, there is every chance that he will attempt at least four shots.
Over 4.5 cards
Argentina are no strangers to poorly-disciplined competitive games.
In their seven games at the 2022 World Cup, a total of 42 cards were issued for a total of six cards per game, although that figure is inflated by the staggering 15 cards issued in their notorious quarter-final against the Dutch.
Take that away, however, and games involving Argentina still average over four cards per game. The 2021 Copa America was no different, with a total of 41 cards issued in their matches.
That is far, far above the average for the 2021 Copa America, with roughly four cards issued per game at the tournament.
With the likes of Rodrigo De Paul, Leandro Paredes and Cristian Romero among their ranks, Argentina possess players who can simultaneously wind up opposition players and needlessly walk their way into the referee’s notebook.
Argentina to commit 12 or more fouls
It may not come as a surprise to learn that Argentina also commit a high number of fouls at international tournaments.
They committed 100 fouls in seven games at the 2022 World Cup at a rate of over 14 per game. Even accounting for the two periods of extra time that they played against France and the Dutch, that is still a huge number.
They committed 98 fouls across the 2021 Copa America for a rate of exactly 14 per game.
Copa America games tend to be more niggly than their counterparts at the Euros and it would not be surprising in the slightest if Argentina committed a high number of fouls against Canada.
Copa America Betting Tips
ARGENTINA V CANADA BET BUILDER
Handicap Betting: Argentina (-1)
Lionel Messi to Score Anytime
Lautaro Martinez to Have 4+ Shots
Over 4.5 Cards
Argentina to Commit 12+ Fouls
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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Source link : https://news.paddypower.com/football/2024/06/20/football-tips-argentina-copa-america-canada-betting-prediction/
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Publish date : 2024-06-20 07:47:53
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