Both Canada and the US could have new leaders next year

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The odds that both Canada and the United States will elect new leaders before the end of the year have increased significantly in the last few days.

Of course, the presidential election in the U.S. this year has always been set for Nov. 5, but in Canada’s parliamentary system, a general election was not expected until next year, as the Liberal Party government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was not set to expire until then.

That was until last week, when the New Democratic Party, which was protecting the Liberal minority government from a no-confidence vote, announced that it was withdrawing its “supply and confidence” agreement.

The announcement teed up Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre to announce that he would bring a no-confidence motion against the Trudeau government. If the motion were to pass, Parliament would dissolve and a snap election would be called. Polling has consistently shown that Poilievre’s Conservatives are poised to win a majority and end Trudeau’s nine-year premiership.

It should be noted that NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has not yet committed to supporting the motion. Two by-elections to fill vacant seats in Parliament are set for Monday, and the NDP is seeking to win both. The outcome of both races could dictate whether the NDP supports the motion. However, even if the NDP supports dissolving Parliament, Poilievre will still need the support of the Bloc Quebecois, which has signaled some openness to protecting the Trudeau government.

Still, if the motion proves successful, the possibility that the two largest economies in North America will be led by conservative governments next year will increase dramatically.

Former President Donald Trump is in a dead heat with Vice President Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential election. If he were to win and Poilievre became prime minister weeks later, the political situation in North America would dramatically change overnight.

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Mexico’s incoming left-wing president, Claudia Sheinbaum, will find herself as the third wheel in a budding U.S.-Canada bromance, one that likely will bring about major changes in immigration policy for both of her northern neighbors. Trump and Poilievre could even leverage their close ties to secure further renegotiated trade deals among the three countries, putting Mexico at a disadvantage as it continues to allow China to skirt U.S. tariffs by using the southern border as a back door.

Whether Trump or Poilievre get into power this year remains to be seen. Trump still has to win an election, and Poilievre still has to get an election scheduled. But if both men become the leaders of their respective nations, it could have major reverberations on the international stage.

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