Canada’s Top Conservative, Long a MAGA Favorite, Flees From Trump as Polls Tighten

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Canada’s top conservative candidate for prime minister was seemingly cruising along to what looked like a sure victory in next month’s general election, but all that has been shot down by President Trump’s campaign against America’s neighbor to the north.

Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party in Canada, had been steadily ahead in many polls — often by double digits — but a new survey shows the Liberals closing the huge gap in recent weeks.

In December, the Conservatives were favored by 45 percent of those surveyed by the Angus Reid Institute, compared to just 16 percent for the Liberals. But in its latest survey this week, Conservatives fell to 40 percent while the Liberals soared to 37 percent, putting the tallies within the poll’s margin of error.

“When you look at the changes over the past four weeks it’s basically a whole new world … the big change is Trump,” Nik Nanos, founder of the Nanos Research polling firm, told Reuters.

The latest Nanos Research poll shows the Conservatives with 39 percent public support and the Liberals at 32 percent. If the margin were to hold on Election Day, the Conservatives could fail to win a majority of the 343 seats in the House of Commons.

Even though Mr. Trump hasn’t formally backed Mr. Poilievre, some of his Cabinet members and other MAGA allies have openly expressed support for him.

“This guy is going to send [Prime Minister Justin] Trudeau packing in 2025 (finally) and start digging Canada out of the progressive mess it’s in,” Mr. Trump’s national security adviser, Mike Waltz, wrote in a May social media post.

First buddy Elon Musk — who runs Mr. Trump’s new Department of Government Efficiency — also has openly endorsed Mr. Poilievre and heaped praise on the Conservative leader on his own social media platform.

While Mr. Poilievre has run a campaign on populist appeal, using slogans like “ax the tax” and “everything feels broken,” he’s been forced to distance himself from Mr. Trump’s calls to levy heavy tariffs on imports and make Canada America’s 51st state.

He has promised that Canada will “never be the 51st state” and warned that Mr. Trump’s tariffs will set off an expensive trade war.

“We will bear any burden and pay any price to protect the sovereignty and independence of our country,” Mr. Poilievre added. He also took direct aim at Mr. Trump, calling him a bully and warning that the president should “never confuse our kindness for weakness.”

With Canadians feeling a new patriotism, Mr. Poilievre even mocked America, saying, “As Winston Churchhill said though, ‘You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing, after exhausting all other possibilities.'”

The Liberals are trying hard to saddle Mr. Poilievre with Mr. Trump’s rhetoric, releasing a campaign ad tying the two together. The ad opens with the words “How can you speak for Canada when you sound like Donald Trump?” and shows the two uttering nearly identical phrases.

Meanwhile, another poll shows Canadians have had a surge in national pride since Mr. Trump began his diatribes, with those who describe themselves as “very proud” to be Canadian jumping 10 points. In addition, the popularity of Mr. Trudeau, a member of the Liberals who is stepping down as prime minister next month, has soared, from 22 percent in January to 34 percent in January, the Angus Reid survey found.

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