Experts nervous Trump, Harris presidential election results could spark unrest, ripple effect in Canada

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An American foreign policy expert, who moved to Ottawa from New York City in 2003, is approaching the Nov. 5 election in the United States with unease.

“I am very fearful of Nov. 5th,” international relations and foreign policy expert at Carleton University, Brian Schmidt, told Yahoo News Canada during a telephone interview.

“I don’t think it’s going to go well, whatsoever. He’s (Donald Trump) already putting things into place to contest the election before it even happens. He’s now claiming that early polls show he’s way ahead, which will raise doubt when he doesn’t win. Mike Johnson, who is the Speaker of the House, seems to be hooked to the hip with Donald Trump,” Schmidt added.

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is the first since the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. With nothing but an extremely thin margin between the two candidates, voters are worried if the potential political violence and attempts to overturn the results would follow the vote on Tuesday night.

The Republican nominee for president has repeatedly claimed the 2020 election was stolen by “election fraud” with the latest of these accusations coming in his three-hour interview with Joe Rogan, following which he also issued warnings against any potential interference this year. House Speaker Mike Johnson seems to share the sentiment as he, recently, failed to “unequivocally” say that Joe Biden won the 2020 U.S. election, calling the discussion around it a “gotcha game.”

“You have prominent politicians, Senators, the Speaker of the House, still saying that the previous election was stolen. These are not just uninformed citizens, these are powerful elected officials still claiming this.”

Can the 'thuggery', violence of U.S. politics be avoided in Canada? Experts weigh in Canada has long feared the chaos of U.S. politics spilling over, but it does beg the question: will the Trump-Harris race translate into violence and disturbance in Canada, especially leading into an election year?

The stakes are extremely high as Canadians move cautiously on what mistakes and problems in the American system they want to avoid. However, events in the past years like Liberal MP Catherine McKenna's office being trashed, the trucker protests in Ottawa and concerns over the legitimacy of the B.C. election results last month puts into question if the Canadian way of life, and specifically events like the federal election, are immune from events like the Jan. 6 insurrection in the U.S.

North America political science expert Melissa Haussman told Yahoo News Canada the absence of a Trump-like candidate north of the border makes a significant difference in the influence of any potential political unrest spilling over.

I sincerely hope nobody in Canada takes examples from the thuggery in the U.S., particularly happening at polling places and Democratic headquarters. But we also know there has been thuggery in Canada, such as when Liberal MP Catherine McKenna's office got trashed. But the outright violence and election denialism I really hope does not get into Canada. Thus far, you have not had a Trumpist candidate who incites their followers to violence.Melissa Haussman, Carleton University professor and author

Foreign policy experts are weighing in on concerns shared by Americans and American Canadians over the possibility of political violence in the U.S. following Election Day similar to the Jan. 6 insurrection and if there lies a risk of potential spillover to the north, where Canada is in election mode.

Experts like Canadian-American political behaviour specialist Dr. Lewis Krashinsky and Canadian foreign policy specialist Fen Hampson believe that Canada is not likely to experience scenarios similar to the insurrection at the Capitol which aimed to prevent the peaceful transfer of power after Donald Trump lost the presidential election.

Canadians have a much greater degree of confidence and trust in our electoral systems and generally have greater trust in government than Americans (though some of that is clearly eroding). The bigger threat is the intrusive efforts of other countries—China, Russia, Iran, India—to manipulate social media, sow misinformation and undermine our democratic institutions and processes.Fen Hampson, Canadian foreign policy expert, Expert Group on Canada-US relations

“Thankfully, we’re not there in Canada. And hopefully never will be,” Krashinsky added in an email to Yahoo News Canada.

“Some people have said to never underestimate the porousness of the Canada-U.S. border for preventing the spread of ideas and sentiment. And closely contested elections can raise suspicions of voters disappointed by the results,” Dr. Krashinsky said, citing another expert opinion backing his statement.

But we just had a provincial election in B.C., with razor-thin margins, where the vast majority of the public and the leader of the second-place party have not delved to the same depths of conspiracy and misinformation as Americans have. Notwithstanding the odd Twitter (X) account whose voice is more amplified than it should be, political leaders and British Columbians have stood strong and continue to trust our electoral institutions.Dr. Lewis Krashinsky, political behaviour expert, University of Toronto

Dr. Krashinsky believes while Canadians can take comfort in the fact that “vast majority haven’t shown much willingness to lend baseless claims a welcome ear,” it should not make them “complacent.”

“We have to continue to be on guard against contagious and fictitious ideas that threaten our democratic process,” he concluded.

Schmidt seems to share Dr. Krashinsky’s sentiment, however, he also can’t deny the other possible ways in which the events following the presidential election in the U.S. could impact upcoming elections in Canada.

I would like to say no. I am an American living in this country. The trucker convoy and occupying of Ottawa, I would have never predicted or imagined that happening. As rhetoric gets raised, as the politics becomes more polarized, as the anger increases, there is possibility of scenarios that this country has never seen. I think the one big difference is gun ownership. You can have protests, tractor trailers, whatever, but I think the risk of real political violence is not as great as the United States.Brian Schmidt, American foreign policy expert, Carleton University

Still, Stephen Saideman, an international affairs expert at Carleton University, has hope.

“...Yes, all disinformation in the U.S. makes its way here—anti-vax stuff, far right extremism. But elections tend to be better managed here, not so many partisan hands involved in counting and monitoring and such,” Saideman said.

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