No good news for Canada amid U.S. election convulsions

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While Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda would be detrimental to Canadian interests, Harris’s trade policies may be no better

Published Jul 30, 2024 • Last updated 2 hours ago • 5 minute read

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The election battle between U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate, and former president Donald Trump promises to be most consequential in decades, writes Derek H. Burney. Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI / PATRICK T. FALLON / AFP via Getty ImagesArticle content

The U.S. presidential election campaign has quickly become convulsive, unprecedented and nasty. The early debate on June 27, requested by Joe Biden, was a gamble that failed spectacularly. His devastatingly confused performance sent panic waves through Democratic ranks, ultimately obliging him to withdraw from the race and designate Vice-President Kamala Harris as his replacement.

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Facing increasing internal dissent, declining polls and reluctant donors, Biden was advised by Democrat stalwarts like Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer that he had “no pathway to victory.” His cognitive decline, so obvious in the debate, had been masked by those closest to him for months, if not years. Democrats can be unrelenting when they sense power slipping away. Biden had little choice other than to step down. Although his explanatory speech to the public was hypocritically praised by his party and an adulatory media as “selfless,” his decision was effectively the result of a bloodless coup.

Biden’s consolation prize was to remain as president until Jan. 20, prompting House Speaker Mike Johnson to declare in a post on X, “If Joe Biden is not fit to run for President, he is not fit to serve as President. He must resign the office immediately.”

Two days before the Republican convention, 20-year-old Thomas Crooks fired shots at Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, killing an audience member and wounding two others at the Pennsylvania rally. Had Trump not turned slightly to view a chart about illegal migration, he would most likely have died. As it was, a bullet grazed his ear. When Trump emerged standing and bleeding, surrounded by Secret Service agents, pumping his fist and yelling “fight, fight, fight,” the crowd roared with relief and approval. The attempted assassination aroused exceptional party unity and enthusiasm.

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Some had hoped that the attempted assassination might soften Trump’s attitude on issues and lead to a broader call for unity in the United States. The start of his convention speech gave a riveting description of the shooting incident and his now iconic fist pump under the U.S. flag. He promised to work for “all of America, not half of America.” However, he went off script in the middle, rambled on for 90 minutes, ending well past 1:00 am Eastern time, castigating Biden and the Democrats while boasting about his record and what he would do on “Day One.” But, as Daniel Henninger observed in the Wall Street Journal, “Trump struggles to present his own economic achievement with anything resembling clarity.” Trump’s running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, is expected to help the ticket in battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

The Republican convention was a great success; Trump’s speech was not, but his resilience and toughness in the face of relentless attacks — legal, political and potentially lethal — are characteristics Americans like in their leaders. Comparisons to Teddy Roosevelt were widely invoked.

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Clear lapses in security at the Pennsylvania rally now face intense investigation. While agents near the podium responded bravely in the wake of the shooting, there are serious questions about earlier failures that allowed an individual with an assault rifle to get within 135 metres of Trump. Police had taken notice of Crooks, acting suspiciously, and yet did not detain him nor prevent the former president from taking the stage.

Recriminations against Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle and the Secretary of Homeland Security, Alejandro Mayorkas, to whom she reports, were immediate. Testifying before Congress, Cheatle acknowledged that the incident had been “the most significant operational failure for decades.” She took “full responsibility” at the hearing, steadfastly refused bipartisan calls for her resignation but then resigned the next day.

There has been little good news for Canada from Republicans this month. In a speech leading up to the NATO summit in Washington, Mike Johnson justifiably castigated our defence spending neglect. “Talk about riding America’s coattails. They have the safety and security of being on our border and not having to worry about that. I think that’s shameful,” he said. And he’s right — Trudeau’s lame pledge to meet the two per cent NATO commitment by 2032 was downright laughable.

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Should Trump win – and the election is now his to lose – his “America First” agenda on trade promises a unilateral, protectionist series of policies and actions that will be detrimental to Canadian interests. (Harris may be no better on trade.) Isolationist sentiments mean that the outlook for NATO is murky. However, Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” mantra on energy might cause some Canadians to see greater value in our abundant resources, and question elements of the Liberals’ green mania.

Turmoil among Democrats and the striking physical contrast between Biden and Trump had dominated the news but now, less than a month before the Democrat Convention (Aug. 19-22), the focus is shifting to Harris and her prospects. She is enjoying a honeymoon start. Her campaign team raised $200 million in less than a week and she rapidly gained endorsements from most convention delegates, meaning the convention will be more of a coronation than a contest.

Harris’s forte will be the abortion issue — and the removal of Biden and his mental acuity as fodder for the Republicans. As a former prosecutor, she claimed explicitly that she knew how to handle felons. However, her handling of the border has elicited strong criticism given the ongoing chaos there, and she will have as much difficulty as Biden did defending the administration’s record on the economy and inflation.

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Harris would be better to focus on what she will do in future, but her limited foreign policy and national security expertise could be a liability. Along with several Democrats, she snubbed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to Congress last week — demonstrating the opposite of leadership. Former president Barack Obama will no doubt play a key supporting role. Most significantly perhaps, Harris has brought renewed vigour and hope to the Democrat campaign. The race is already tightening, and she will undoubtedly get a further boost from the convention.

The question now is whether the Democrats, under a new leader, can match or better the Republicans on unity and enthusiasm and attract more Independents. The American election promises to be most consequential in decades, and the homestretch will begin in earnest on Labour Day.

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Derek H. Burney is a former 30-year career diplomat who served as Ambassador to the United States of America from 1989 to 1993.

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