Which Way Will Trump Look?

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It's no surprise that many Indians—including some former diplomats—are celebrating Donald Trump's reelection. After all, Trump's bond with India, and particularly with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was the envy of many countries and leaders during his first term. Granted, some might say they were mere optics: remember appearances at rallies like “Howdy, Modi!” and “Namaste, Trump!” in Houston and Ahmedabad?

With Trump's return to the Oval Office just weeks away, some in India are already hoping that he will put New Delhi's new adversary, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in his place. After all, Trump's past comments on Trudeau range from “weak” to “two-faced", to even “far-left lunatic”—hardly a subtle hint of his opinion of his neighbouring country's leader.

Why Canadians Are Worried For Canadians, though, Trump's second term has sparked more shock than celebration. Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland (also the country's finance minister) held two press conferences post his election to calm Canadian nerves, saying Canada will be “absolutely fine”. Yet, many Canadians remain uneasy over Trump's return to the White House, and for good reason. There are three big areas of anxiety: tariffs, NATO contributions and the looming renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

First, Trump has hinted at slapping a blanket 10% tariff on all imports to the US, which would hit Canada hard given that more than two-thirds of its exports are US-bound. Then there is Trump's expectation that NATO members chip in a full 2% of their GDP on defence. Canada is currently far behind and contributing only 1.23%—a potential sticking point if Trump insists on the required contributions like he did during the last term. Lastly, there's the USMCA, which Trump himself strong-armed Canada and Mexico into renegotiating in 2020. Trump has hinted that the deal is set for review in 2026. Canadians worry that the President-elect could push for even stricter terms this time around.

Will Trump Side With India? Biden's team and its Western European pals are clearly frustrated with India's refusal to oppose Russia over the Ukraine war. They have not said it out loud, but it's hard not to suspect that they are quietly backing Trudeau behind the scenes in his finger-pointing at India, accusing officials of involvement in the killing of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Let's be real—it wasn't without Big Brother's nod that Trudeau stood in Parliament last year hurling accusations at India. Furthermore, if Canada decides to move forward with these allegations, the possibility is it won't be acting alone. The US and the UK, key members of the Five Eyes alliance, have often helped manage diplomatic and security issues with countries outside the alliance. Since both countries have close ties with India, they may help Canada weigh the strength and possible impact of these accusations before taking any official steps. Still, accusing a powerful country like India could affect important strategic interests.

Moreover, the possible egging on by Big Brother suits Trudeau too, giving him a shot at placating his Sikh voter base and propping up his waning popularity. However, only a rookie diplomat, I would say, can fully trust the self-serving strategy that the US usually follows.

We cannot underplay US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller's blunt statement last month: “When it comes to the Canadian matter, we have made clear that the allegations are extremely serious and they need to be taken seriously. We wanted to see the government of India cooperate with Canada in its investigation. Obviously, they have not chosen that path.” The statement did not reflect India's position that there was complete disregard for New Delhi's request to Ottawa to share evidence. And now, with allegations of India's involvement in an attempted assassination, the Biden administration has another card to play. Nonetheless, India is cooperating with the US on the investigation and neither side wants to blow it out of proportion.

Now, as Trump re-enters his office, his promise to end the war in Ukraine, if fulfilled, will be a game-changer. Without Ukraine in the equation, the US pressure on India to pick a side goes out of the window, and Biden's “cold-shoulder” tactics would become a non-issue. Trump, however, we all know, is a wildcard. While he may want closer ties with India, we know how that “America First” agenda translates: tariffs, immigration restrictions and a hard line on H-1B visas. Fortunately though, Trump's stance on Russia (to end the war) aligns with India's, as does his anti-China focus. It's quite possible he might ask Trudeau to either produce proof in the Nijjar case or drop the offensive. Who knows.

But Don't Underestimate US-Canada Bond Even so, we should never underestimate America's deep-rooted ties with Canada—they are in a league of their own. Sure, Trump and Trudeau have clashed publicly, but Trudeau is not one to be caught off guard. On Thursday, he revealed that his officials had been quietly talking to Trump's campaign team for months, readying for a potential return. Trudeau didn't waste a minute—he reinstated a Cabinet committee on US-Canada relations, led by Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, to deal with anything Trump 2.0 might throw at them. And he was among the first to call Trump after the win, showing that when it comes to the US, Trudeau is all about pragmatism, or, dare I say, even subservience. His office spelt it out well: “Following the election of President Donald Trump for a second term, the Cabinet Committee will focus on critical Canada-US issues.”

The US-Canada relationship is unlike anything else in the world. The two countries are more like siblings rather than neighbours, no matter who sits in the Oval Office. They are two very prosperous countries: Canada's per capita income is over $58,000, while America's is $81,000. They have got each other's backs on defence, border security, and law enforcement. The overlap is everywhere—from culture and sports to leisure and shared traditions. They have much more in common between them than either of them has with India.

Consider this: in 2023, the US-Canada trade hit over a trillion dollars, with $2.8 billion crossing their border every single day. They are each other's biggest trade partners, with Canada sending 78% of its goods and services to the US every year, and over 400,000 people moving across their shared 5,525-mile border daily.

Canada Has Five Eyes By Its Side Let's keep in mind that Canada is a NATO member and the countries in the grouping are quite united and usually back each other against any third party. Then there is the intelligence-sharing bond under the Five Eyes institution. The Five Eyes alliance—a formidable network comprising the US, the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand—has been at the forefront of global intelligence operations for decades. The alliance was built to facilitate intelligence collection and sharing among its members, ensuring a near-seamless flow of critical security information. In light of Canada's recent allegations against Indian officials, the alliance ought to have played a crucial role in sharing information with Canadian intelligence officials.

Also, as a core member of the Five Eyes, Canada has access to intelligence and insights that most nations can only aspire to attain. If Canada believes it has intelligence linking Indian officials to Nijjar's assassination, it is likely benefiting from the information-sharing protocols within the Five Eyes network. Notably, Canada may be leveraging Five Eyes capabilities to cross-reference signals intelligence (SIGINT) and other classified insights, allowing them to build a stronger case against India, should any concrete evidence exist.

Let Canada's Voters Decide Anyway, India might just have to play the waiting game until Canada's next general election, now less than a year away. Trudeau's grip on power since he took office in 2015 is looking shakier than ever today. If he is out of the picture, the new government's stance on India could breathe fresh life into those frosty bilateral ties.

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

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