At the tail end of Tampa Bay’s worst hurricane season in a century, the threat of yet another storm looms over the region as a rare November hurricane is showing signs of coming to life in the Caribbean.
The National Hurricane Center issued its first advisory for Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 at 4 p.m. Wednesday. Forecasters expect the disturbance to form as Tropical Storm Sara in the Caribbean later this week. Some forecast models predict it will intensify into a hurricane and threaten Florida next week.
Forecasters in the Tampa Bay area, which is still recovering from hurricanes Helene and Milton, said it’s too early to tell where the storm will go after it strikes Central America, but urged residents to keep an eye on forecasts.
Spectrum Bay News 9 meteorologist Mike Clay said there are two likely scenarios in play: One where the system stays at a lower latitude, gaining energy from warm Caribbean waters as it moves toward the Florida Keys; and another where it tracks west near Mexico before fizzling out.
After the hurricane center released a forecast showing the likely storm would head toward land, the latter option seemed more likely, according to some local meteorologists.
“More and more models are showing that it comes up across Central America and basically just dies there as it goes up over the mountainous terrain,” Clay said.
The outcome could also depend on the timing of a cold front expected next week. If the system merges with the front, it would become an “extra-tropical” storm, which would be unlikely to be as strong as a major hurricane and would bring thunderstorms to Tampa Bay followed by dry, cool weather.
But as it stood Wednesday, the whole Florida peninsula is at risk, Clay added. The models that show the system surviving after it enters the gulf agree it should reach the state next Wednesday — regardless of its strength.
“More of the models are south of us, which would mean we would just get rain, thunderstorms. Some of the models show it dissipating southwest of us,” he said. “It’s still really hard to tell this far out.”
If it does turn and strike Florida, it would become the fourth named storm to hit the state’s Gulf Coast this hurricane season and continue an eight-year streak of gulf landfalls.
The National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office posted on social media Wednesday that though the system may enter the gulf early next week, “there remains significant uncertainty to determine what, if any impacts may occur across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula.
“Residents and visitors should continue to monitor the forecast for updates,” the post states.
@NHC_Atlantic has started issuing forecasts for PTC 19, that is expected to remain in the Caribbean Sea through the upcoming weekend. By next week, there is significant uncertainty with the system as it may move into the Gulf. Stay tuned. #FLwx pic.twitter.com/9np8XrLl5y
— NWS Tampa Bay (@NWSTampaBay) November 13, 2024
Nicole Carlisle, a forecaster with the Ruskin office, said it would certainly be an anomaly to see a major hurricane enter the gulf in November.
The last time that happened was in 1985, when Hurricane Kate grew to Category 3 strength in the gulf before making landfall as a weak Category 2 along the Panhandle.
As of the hurricane center‘s 7 p.m. tropical outlook, the broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea was producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will fly into the system Thursday morning to collect more data used in the center’s forecasts.
As of Wednesday evening, the disturbance was moving west at about 6 mph with sustained winds of 30 mph, according to the advisory. It was about 260 miles east-northeast of the Honduras-Nicaragua border.
The system is expected to dump heavy rain over Jamaica and the Cayman Islands over the next couple of days. It will then turn slowly to the northwest by early next week as it moves into the western Caribbean near Central America before heading toward Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula and approaching the Gulf of Mexico.
The government of Honduras issued a hurricane watch from Punta Castilla east to the Honduras-Nicaragua border, and the government of Nicaragua placed a section of its coast from the Honduras-Nicaragua border south to Puerto Cabezas under a tropical storm watch.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has had 17 named storms so far, 11 of which became hurricanes, with five of those growing into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or stronger.
The season officially ends Nov. 30, which allows plenty of time for late-season surprises, Carlisle said.
“Don’t let your guard down yet,” she said.
Material from the Orlando Sentinel (TNS) supplements this report.
• • •
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Publish date : 2024-11-13 11:19:00
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