Rain, rough seas for Cayman as Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 develops

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Local forecasters are projecting rainfall and rough seas in the Cayman area starting late Wednesday and increasing from Thursday through to the weekend as a system in the central Caribbean Sea Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen continues to develop.

At 4pm Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen was located about 264 miles southeast of Grand Cayman, with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph.

The system is moving towards the west at 6 mph.

The Cayman Islands National Weather Service, in a Wednesday afternoon advisory, said that it continues to monitor the low-pressure system in the Caribbean Sea, designated Potential Tropical Cyclone 19.

“Associated rain showers are expected to impact the Cayman Islands starting [Wednesday] 13 November, and may persist into early next week as the system remains in the western Caribbean,” the advisory stated.

Flood Warning to be issued The system is forecast to bring increased rain, winds and rough seas around the Cayman Islands, the advisory stated.

“With ground already saturated from recent rainfall, residents are advised to prepare for an elevated risk of flooding. A Flood Warning will be in effect from 15 to 16 November,” the Weather Service advisory stated.

Grand Cayman can expect up to 10 inches of rain throughout the week, with the heaviest rainfall anticipated on Friday, the Weather Service stated.

Over on the Sister Islands residents can expect up to 8 inches of rains throughout the week, with the heaviest rain also expected on Friday.

Sustained winds of 15–20 knots (17-23 mph) over the next two days can be expected, increasing to 20-25 knots (23-29 mph) with higher gusts expected over the weekend. Wave heights are expected to be 5–7 feet from Thursday to Friday, increasing to 6–8 feet from Saturday through Monday.

“A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from 14 to 15 November, escalating to a Small Craft Warning from 16 to 18 November. Mariners are advised to exercise caution in anticipation of strong winds and high seas,” the advisory stated.

‘Too early to say’ Phil Klotzbach, CSU meteorologist and research scientist, told the Cayman Compass via email, that the environment in front of the system is “quite conducive for intensification given extremely warm water and low shear”. He added it’s also going to come very close to Central America.

“Some models take the system over Central America, which could weaken the storm substantially. A ridge of high pressure will build to the north of 99L, which should cause the system to effectively meander across the northwest Caribbean for several days,” he said.

However, Klotzbach said the exact position and strength of the ridge will be critical in determining whether the system is a strengthening hurricane in the northwest Caribbean or a weakening storm over land.

“It’s just too early to say at this point,” he said.

Cayman outlook Cayman’s National Weather Service, in its Wednesday forecast, said it is continuing to monitor the development of this system.

“Cloudiness and showers associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, southeast of the Cayman area, is expected to spread across the Cayman Islands from [Wednesday] night. Moderate to fresh northeasterly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected across the Cayman area for the next 24 hours as the surface pressure gradient tightens across our region,” it said.

Radar images show scattered showers in and around the Cayman area which are moving towards the southwest, the forecast added.

This National Weather Service graphic shows the forecast for the remainder of the week. Hurricane Hunter aircraft to investigate system The US Hurricane Center, in its advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 on Wednesday afternoon, said a Hurricane Watch from Punta Castilla eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border has been issued.

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from the Honduras/Nicaragua Border southward to Puerto Cabezas.

The system should continue its westward motion during the next few days, with a decrease in forward speed, the NHC said.

“On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the western Caribbean Sea and slow as it nears the coast of Central America. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and continue strengthening as it moves near the coast of Central America,” it added.

Klotzbach said, the system is a fairly broad area of low pressure.

“Once the system gets a more well-defined center, this should also help better define its future track/intensity. The National Hurricane Center is flying aircraft reconnaissance into the system, which should also help us get a better idea of its current intensity/structure,” he said.

In general, he said, cool neutral ENSO/weak La Nina conditions combined with an extremely warm Caribbean favour late season activity in the region.

“Vertical wind shear has broadly been below average across the Caribbean, and it looks to remain so for at least the next ten days. By the time we get later into November, the vertical wind shear in the western Caribbean will likely begin to increase as we move into less favorable subseasonal condition,” he added.

Additional updates will follow.

For the latest information on storm activity in the Cayman Islands, as well as information on how to prepare for hurricane season, visit Storm Centre.

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Rain, rough seas for Cayman as Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 develops

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