A batch of showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean is forecast by AccuWeather meteorologists to evolve into a tropical rainstorm and then become a tropical storm later this week as it drifts westward. At least one scenario involves a hurricane moving into Florida next week.
“Wind shear remains low over much of the Caribbean, and waters are plenty warm (in the 80s F),” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said, “And now, with showers and thunderstorms beginning to gather, it will likely not be much longer until a tropical rainstorm forms and continues to organize into a tropical storm.”
Wind shear is represented by stiff breezes that can prevent a tropical storm from forming or cause a tropical storm or hurricane to weaken.
With no competition for a tropical storm throughout the Atlantic basin, the next name on the list, Sara, is likely to be given to the feature in the Caribbean.
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Because of the warm water and low wind shear in the region, there is a significant chance it will go on to become a hurricane if it avoids making landfall in Central America.
“Should the feature become a hurricane, it would be the 12th of the season, which is a testament to the supercharged nature of the season, where the historical average is seven hurricanes,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
“There are multiple scenarios with the feature in the Caribbean that are tied to the speed of development and track early on that could affect land areas with landfall and direct impacts later on,” DaSilva added, “Not only does this have a significant chance of becoming a hurricane, but it may become a major hurricane very quickly.”
If a tropical storm or hurricane forms in the western Caribbean, the track is likely to be heavily influenced by the position of a dome of high pressure along the southern Atlantic coast of the United States.
Should the high firmly hold its ground, it will likely steer the tropical trouble into Central America or southeastern Mexico later this weekend to next week. From there, it may diminish over the region or possibly begin a turn toward the Gulf of Mexico. However, in a weakened state, it may not have time to regain hurricane intensity before any approach to the Florida Peninsula.
If the high pressure moves away swiftly, the door will be open for the future tropical rainstorm to track from the western Caribbean, through the passage between Cuba and Mexico and then into the southwestern Gulf. This track represents a stronger system with a potentially significant hurricane impact on Florida, where steering breezes could guide the system in the general direction of the Florida Keys and the southern part of the Florida Peninsula.
Interests in Central America, from Nicaragua to Belize, in southeastern Mexico, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Florida, and the Bahamas are strongly recommended to monitor the progress of the evolving tropical threat.
If a powerful hurricane makes landfall, there will be significant downpours that can lead to flash flooding, strong wind gusts that can cause property damage and power outages and a storm surge that may also pose a significant risk to lives and property.
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Publish date : 2024-11-12 04:20:00
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