Latin America and the Caribbean have lots of reasons to view Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections with trepidation.
Here’s what the region’s leading media organizations are saying about the “Strongman’s” return to power.
Trump: Friend or foe of Latin America?
In general, many leaders and analysts consider Trump a potential ‘enemy’ due to his hostile rhetoric towards immigration and protectionist policies. This Trump 2.0 encounters a region that has shifted to the left, with countries that have understood negotiations are long-term, but with a Congress with Republican majorities as well.
No Trumpism in Latin America: Unlike his first presidential term, at this moment the region’s governments are positioned more to the left, with Petro in Colombia, Boric in Chile, Lula in Brazil, Sheinbaum in Mexico, Xiomara Castro in Honduras… Only Costa Rica with Rodrigo Chávez, Panama with Jose Raul Mulino, and Trump-like showmen such as Javier Milei in Argentina and Nayib Bukele in El Salvador are closer to right-wing ideologies.
However, once the victory was known, all the region’s leaders were diplomatic and conciliatory towards the president-elect.
Mexico: President Claudia Sheinbaum indicated that her government would wait until the vote count was finalized before issuing an official statement. But in a reassuring tone, she also said: “Mexico always moves forward. We are a free, independent, sovereign country and there will be a good relationship with the United States. I am convinced of that.”
Brazil: Lula da Silva’s government has adopted a pragmatic approach, recognizing that the relationship with Trump will be fundamentally economic. President Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva said via X that “Democracy is the voice of the people and it must always be respected. The world needs dialogue and joint work.”
Meus parabéns ao presidente Donald Trump pela vitória eleitoral e retorno à presidência dos Estados Unidos. A democracia é a voz do povo e ela deve ser sempre respeitada. O mundo precisa de diálogo e trabalho conjunto para termos mais paz, desenvolvimento e prosperidade. Desejo…
— Lula (@LulaOficial) November 6, 2024
Colombia: President Gustavo Petro congratulated Trump on his victory, indicating a willingness to continue dialogue between both countries. He indicated in a tone similar to Lula’s that “The American people have spoken and they are respected.”
Argentina: On the Argentine side, media reported “euphoria” in President Javier Milei’s inner circle, perhaps the region’s leader closest ideologically to Trump. Milei also used X to congratulate Trump.
.@realDonaldTrump congratulations on your formidable electoral victory.
Now, Make America Great Again. You know that You can count on Argentina to carry out your task.
Success and blessings.
Best regards,
Javier Milei ( @JMilei ) pic.twitter.com/gpOPYlxj7u
— Javier Milei (@JMilei) November 6, 2024
Trump is transactional
“What we know about Trump is that he is transactional,” said analyst Mariana Campero, from the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), to the Mexican media Aristegui Noticias.
Along the same lines, Colombian analyst Juan Carlos Florez told Canal Caracol that “Many debate about the current ideology of the U.S. president. We are used to categorizing them as right or left, but in the United States, they don’t govern based on ideologies, they govern based on interests.”
Protectionism: Protectionist policies are a central concern in the region. Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs on imported products – 200% on cars manufactured in Mexico, for example – which could harm economies dependent on trade with the U.S., such as Mexico, Brazil or Colombia.
Free Trade Agreements: The president of the Colombian-American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham), Maria Claudia Lacouture, said that “the current trade agreement between the United States and Colombia offers a legal security framework that restricts the imposition of unilateral barriers by the United States towards Colombia. This agreement has the potential to maintain trade and investment between both countries in a state of relative stability, even in the context of possible political tensions between Presidents Trump and Petro.”
Foreign Direct Investment: Reassuring voices also came from Guatemala, with Raúl Bouscayrol, president of the Guatemalan Chamber of Industry (CIG), explaining to local media that both parties are interested in continuing nearshoring policies and foreign direct investment (FDI) with the region. “Guatemala is in an excellent position to take advantage of these bipartisan initiatives in the United States, with access and proximity to the main ports in the Gulf, Atlantic and Pacific,” he emphasized.
International Relations
Uruguayan media pointed out that with two wars happening at the moment and domestic issues, the new government will “look the other way,” leaving an “open window” for other countries like China or Turkey to approach the region, especially towards the south of the continent, as “The U.S. claims to have interest in Latin America and the Caribbean, but limits almost all its relations to Mexico,” analyst Ronal Rodríguez told El País of Uruguay.
Economic Sanctions and Migration
Throughout the region, especially Central America and the Caribbean, there is strong concern about the migration issue. If Trump fulfills his campaign promises of border closures, mass deportations, and sanctions against regimes considered adversaries like Venezuela, the situation looks bleak. This would not only directly affect these countries but could also have economic repercussions for their neighbors due to increased migratory flows, humanitarian crisis and reduction of remittances coming from the U.S. to these countries.
NSAM’s Take
The region’s leaders know that with Trump’s return, they will be walking on thin ice.
There are lessons learned about his style. There’s a Trump character on the campaign trail and another Trump persona as president. However, his strong rhetoric and protectionist measures, his hostile approach to immigration and his trade policies threaten to aggravate existing economic issues in the region.
The Nearshore sector could be affected if the new president decides to sanction companies that outsource their services to other countries, but that step is highly unlikely.
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Publish date : 2024-11-07 07:03:00
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