In 2023, the report put the country’s cocaine production potential at a historic high. Agricultural and technological advancements have allowed farmers to increase the yield of each coca plant. Farmers are increasingly planting new species of coca that need less fertilizer, are plague-resistant, and can be harvested more often. Moreover, coca concentration has made the cultivation, extraction, and production phases of cocaine more efficient.
Additionally, the steep decline in coca prices over the past two years has not led to a significant decrease in coca cultivation, which could mean farmers are stocking up for better times.
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And that could be just around the corner. Increasing demand for cocaine in Europe and steady demand in the United States have kept cocaine profitable, meaning criminal groups likely have the cash to pay more for the raw material.
“The drug market for cocaine is expanding not only in traditional markets like North America, Europe, and Oceania, but also in emerging markets such as Asia, Africa, and South America,” said Welsch.
“The more we wage the war on drugs, the higher the risk premium [for traffickers]” said Sanho Tree, Fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies and Director of its Drug Policy Project.
This, coupled with more sophisticated trafficking methods, makes the cocaine pipeline resilient to traditional anti-narcotic efforts in Colombia and the region, and it is likely that unless these factors are addressed the coca situation in Colombia will not radically change in the future.
*Juan Diego Cárdenas and Daniel Cohecha contributed to this article.
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Publish date : 2024-10-18 12:14:00
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