* IMF raises Latin American growth forecast for 2024 * Latam Airlines upgrades earnings outlook * MSCI’s Latam FX index up 0.1%, stocks down 0.1% (Updated at 1852 GMT) By Shashwat Chauhan, Pranav Kashyap and Johann M Cherian Oct 22 (Reuters) – Most currencies in resources-rich Latin America rose on Tuesday, with Chile’s peso in the lead as prices of crude oil and copper, some of the region’s top exports, rose, while focus was also on the U.S. presidential elections in two weeks. Copper producer Chile’s peso firmed 0.6% as prices of the red metal rose, while Peru’s sol appreciated 0.4% in light volumes. Crude oil producer Mexico’s peso ticked up 0.2% after falling for the last two session, while Colombia’s peso added 0.3% as crude oil prices rose more than 2%. Mexico’s peso has depreciated nearly 15% since June as markets priced in Banxico’s upcoming interest rate cuts, possible repercussions to trade following domestic judicial reforms and due to greater prediction market bets for a second Donald Trump presidency in the U.S – who has proposed a 200% tariff on vehicles imported from Mexico. Separately, Mexico’s economy shrank 0.3% in August from July and expanded 0.4% from August of 2023, official data showed. “The boost from falling inflation and a still-healthy labour market has prevented a grimmer outlook thus far. Looking ahead, we believe the economy will grow at a slower pace in Q4, and downside risks are increasing due to rising real rates and a challenging external backdrop,” said Andres Abadia, chief Latam economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Bucking the trend was Brazil’s real, which slipped 0.1%, to 5.7 per dollar, with MSCI’s index for currencies in the region up 0.16% against the greenback. The dollar has stayed elevated at a two-and-a-half month high as Trump’s proposed policies on taxes and tariffs are seen as inflationary, likely keeping U.S. interest rates high and undermining the currencies of trading partners. Meanwhile, The International Monetary Fund said GDP in Latin America and the Caribbean was set to grow 2.1% this year, three-tenths of a percentage point more than projected in July. The body raised its 2024 growth forecast for Brazil to 3%, up from 2.1% in July, and Mexico’s forecast to expand 1.5%, seven-tenths of a percentage point less than previously estimated. But Argentina is projected to contract this year, with a 3.5% decline, more than double its 1.6% drop in 2023. On the equities front, a gauge for regional bourses dipped 0.1%. Brazil’s Bovespa and Mexico’s benchmark index lost 0.4% and 0.8% respectivley. Chile’s main index was flat, with Latam Airlines up 1.3%, after the carrier upgraded its guidance for 2024 earnings and passenger growth. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies: Latin American market prices from Reuters MSCI Emerging Markets 1142.07 -0.55 MSCI LatAm 2166.45 -0.14 Brazil Bovespa 129883.1 -0.37 7 Mexico IPC 52391.08 -0.8 Chile IPSA 6667.12 -0.06 Argentina Merval 1809491. -0.616 82 Colombia COLCAP 1349.2 -0.53 Brazil real 5.7028 -0.16 Mexico peso 19.9162 0.25 Chile peso 947.65 0.55 Colombia peso 4258.52 0.27 Peru sol 3.75 0.4 Argentina peso 983.5 0.00 (interbank) Argentina peso 1225 1.22 (parallel) (Reporting by Pranav Kashyap, Shashwat Chauhan and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru, editing by Ed Osmond and Alistair Bell)
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Publish date : 2024-10-22 08:08:00
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