The sudden fall of the ruthless Bashar Assad regime in Syria opens a window of opportunity for Washington to gain geopolitical advantage unseen in the last decades. The right diplomatic moves can rid the Middle East of Russian influence and seriously diminish Iran. It also opens an intriguing opportunity for the U.S. to go even further and diminish Vladimir Putin’s growing influence in Latin America. The table is set.
With the evidence that Russia is much weaker than previously thought, the right policy could help weaken other autocracies in Cuba and Venezuela. There is growing evidence that Russia is only providing cover to the Nicolás Maduro regime in the South American nation, and Cuba, struggling to keep itself afloat, relies on Mexico for oil aid.
Sen. Marco Rubio, President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to lead the State Department in the upcoming administration, has Cuban roots and should be putting the dots together. He has an opportunity to regain U.S. influence in Latin America like none of his predecessors. Trump has announced that the U.S. should avoid getting entangled in Syria. Rubio should encourage him to take the opposite tack and to press American advantage against Russia in both the Middle East and Latin America.
We don’t know what to expect of the victorious rebels in Syria. Cautious optimism is probably too optimistic. Ridding the world of the murderous Assad has the feeling of a turning point for the good. But the world has learned from hard experience to expect the worst in Middle Eastern affairs.
Opinion
It would be willfully naive to put too much hope in Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group rooted in al-Qaeda and the Islamist State. The U.S. still considers this group a terrorist organization. Still, the moment needs some degree of realpolitik from Washington. The leader of HTS, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has tried to distance his Islamic group from the religious zealotry associated with its origins.
The U.S. should be careful of fully embracing al-Golani, and history has taught plenty of lessons of the dangers of dealing with potential autocrats. But there are mutual objectives that can benefit the future of Syria and U.S. interests in the region.
Whatever al-Golani’s victory signals, it reminds us that human beings cannot tolerate tyranny and will seek to throw it off. Russia and Iran are deeply damaged through their relentless support of failed tyrants, and there is a crack of light for U.S. interests.
The effect of Russia and Iran’s failures are playing out in real time in Syria. It may take longer to see its effect in Latin America.
But what was true for Assad is true for all autocracies, and the Venezuelan and Cuban regimes may just need the right pressure to unravel. The tide is turning; can the U.S. take advantage?
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Publish date : 2024-12-10 19:00:00
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