The population displacement is reason enough for the U.S. to intervene. But there are other reasons, no less compelling. Venezuela has taken over from Cuba as the local proxy for Russia, Iran, and other enemy powers. It exports its ideology, funding subversive groups in neighboring democracies. And let’s not be coy about saying that with the Ukraine war pushing up energy prices, it is in everyone’s interest to see oil companies investing once again in a democratic Venezuela.
Opinion in Latin America is divided. Argentina, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Peru, and Uruguay have recognized Gonzalez as the legitimate president, while the neighborhood delinquents — Cuba, Nicaragua, and Honduras — have recognized Maduro. Most countries, including those run by elected left-wing populists, such as Chile, Colombia, and Brazil, are hedging, pointing to irregularities in the poll and asking for more details. A decisive intervention now, while anger about the fraud and the arrests remains hot, would rally many of these countries to a new and democratic Venezuelan government.
But the U.S. appears reluctant to go beyond disapproving words. I say “appears” because it is conceivable that things are happening out of sight, that wavering generals are being sounded out, that the way is being prepared for a decisive putsch.
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It seems likelier, though, that the U.S., caught up in its presidential election, lacks the energy to open a new front. The Iraq debacle shifted the public mood, showing how high the cost of intervention could be. Yet there is also a cost to nonintervention. Some of the things that will follow from leaving the Bolivarian dictatorship in place include stronger migratory pressures on the southern border, a local base for Wagner, the destabilization of the region (Hugo Chavez picked fights with Colombia, Maduro has picked one with Guyana), and, not least, more of the anti-Americanism that spreads across Latin America whenever the yanquis look weak.
Not just across Latin America. What happens in Caracas is being keenly observed in Moscow and Beijing. There is, as I say, a cost to nonintervention.
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Publish date : 2024-09-19 21:29:00
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