Recurring blackouts roiled Cuba. What’s behind the crisis?

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Blackouts have been a regular feature in Cuba for decades. But in recent months, the problem has escalated – lasting longer and occurring more frequently. Here’s a look at the factors driving outages on the island.

Why We Wrote This Cubans are already living through an economic crisis that has affected the cost of basic goods. Recent recurring power outages are only exacerbating problems in the country.

Blackouts have been a regular feature in Cuba for decades. But in recent months, the problem has escalated – lasting longer and occurring more frequently. Here’s a look at the factors driving outages on the island.

Why so many blackouts recently? In October, millions of Cubans were left in the dark for several days after a major power plant failed. But even as electricity started returning to some areas of the country, it soon went out again when another “total outage” hit the national power grid, according to Cuba’s state-owned Electrical Union. At one point, the grid collapsed four times in a span of 48 hours. Next came two hurricanes in a matter of weeks, knocking out power nationwide once more. Many in western Cuba are still waiting for power to return post-Hurricane Rafael, and some eastern provinces have reported up to 20 hours a day without power this week.

Why We Wrote This Cubans are already living through an economic crisis that has affected the cost of basic goods. Recent recurring power outages are only exacerbating problems in the country.

The power plants, built almost entirely in the 1960s and ’70s, burn high-sulfur fuel, which is more damaging to condensers and boilers, says Jorge Piñon, a nonresident fellow at the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin.

Mr. Piñon likens the system to the iconic almendrones , the 1950s-era American-made cars still rolling down Cuban streets. “Just like your automobile, [power plants] need two things: operational maintenance and capital maintenance,” he says. Such maintenance hasn’t happened for decades, which means “the infrastructure is broken, and the only option is short-term Band-Aid solutions” that are increasingly faltering. At this point, “replacing the tires” and expecting to race in the Formula One in this analogy is too late, he says.

How did Cuba get here? The nation’s electrical system “suffers from the same problem as the rest of the economy: chronic lack of investment,” says Sebastián Arcos, interim director at the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University. He adds that the government has made investing in tourism and hotel construction a bigger priority in recent years than investing in its grid.

Blackouts occurred regularly in the 1990s after the fall of the Soviet Union, which had bolstered Cuba’s economy. In 1999, when Hugo Chávez rose to power in Venezuela, his government took care of providing fuel to Cuba at preferential prices, and the blackouts dissipated. But even as the quantity of oil imports has fallen for cash-strapped Cuba, “Now it’s not a question of fuel but generating capacity. The plants are crumbling,” says Mr. Arcos.

The U.S. embargo, now over 60 years old, also plays a role. It has limited who can trade with or invest in Cuba and how. It’s where Cuba’s government places the blame for the blackouts – and for most other economic issues haunting the island.

Although Prime Minister Manuel Marrero said in October that the main factors affecting electricity generation are “the state of the infrastructure, the lack of fuel, and the increase in demand,” President Miguel Díaz-Canel was more blunt. The main cause is the “economic war” and the “financial and energy persecution of the United States” against Cuba, he said, adding that it is “difficult to import fuel and other necessary resources for the industry.”

Many observers suspect that the grid situation could become more difficult under the new leadership of President-elect Donald Trump, who during his first term redesignated Cuba as a “state sponsor of terrorism” and reintroduced travel and business restrictions that had been lifted under the Obama administration.

How are Cubans managing? Electricity failure affects access to clean water and the ability to store food. Cubans are already living through an economic crisis that has impacted the cost of basic goods, and the loss of precious food due to blackouts has left them scrambling.

Some street protests broke out over the recent blackouts, with the Cuban government announcing arrests in early November. But demonstrations haven’t grown to the level of July 2021, when Cuba saw some of the biggest protests – and government crackdowns – in decades over food shortages and postpandemic economic frustrations. Hundreds of people were jailed, making many Cubans fearful of protesting again, says Mr. Arcos.

Are other sources of power possible? The grid’s problems present new opportunities, says Korey Silverman-Roati, a senior fellow at the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia University. He co-authored a report on Cuba’s energy system, and the findings include the potential to capitalize on solar and wind power.

Although Cuba has acknowledged an interest in moving toward renewable energy, few – if any – notable strides have been made. And yet, solar energy could be distributed to the grid “in a way that doesn’t require revamping the entire transmission and generation infrastructure,” Mr. Silverman-Roati notes. “There are opportunities for renewables to plug in.”

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