Editor’s Note for Wednesday, Nov. 13:Â Follow along here for updates on what could become Hurricane Sara.
Hurricane season isn’t over yet, and forecasters say a system in the Caribbean could strengthen into Hurricane Sara next week and travel along an uncertain path in the Gulf of Mexico into late November.
The National Hurricane Center said that as of Tuesday, it is tracking a tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea that’s producing “an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.”
Environmental conditions appear conducive for the wave to develop, according to the hurricane center, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next two to three days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea.
Dubbed as “Invest 99L” by the hurricane center as of Tuesday afternoon, the system is expected to begin a slow northwestward movement by early next week.
“Interests across the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system,” the NHC said, giving it a 90 percent chance of formation through the next seven days.
Where will the system go? Could it become Hurricane Sara?
Computer models show a wide range of possibilities for the eventual strength and path of the system, with some showing a full-blown Hurricane Sara next week in the Gulf of Mexico.
Storm-killing wind shear will initially tend to prevent the northward movement of any budding feature in the Caribbean Sea, AccuWeather said. “However, the natural blocking mechanism could dissolve during the third week of the month and allow any tropical storm to move northward, in which case interests in South Florida and the Keys may need to stay vigilant,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
Other potential paths include a slow slog into Central America, while others show a track out into the Atlantic away from the U.S.
November hurricane forecast: November hurricane forecast says more storms could be brewing after Rafael
The National Hurricane Center said Tuesday it is tracking a tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea that is likely to develop into a tropical depression by the end of the week.
November hurricane forecast says more storms could come after Rafael
While it is getting late in the season, things look “conducive for another storm or two,” Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach told USA TODAY last week.
Rafael made landfall in western Cuba last Wednesday as a Category 3 hurricane, striking the province of Artemisa with sustained winds of up to 115 mph, bringing down the island’s electrical grid. As the center of Rafael moved on to the Gulf, parts of western Cuba were experiencing “life-threatening storm surge” and flash flooding, the hurricane center said last Wednesday evening.
It’s already been an unusually active season, with 17 named storms forming, which is above the average of 14. Of those 17 storms, 11 were hurricanes, including the catastrophic Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30, though storms occasionally form in December.
“There aren’t any ‘smoking gun’ signals at this point, but the large-scale looks fairly conducive” for more tropical cyclone activity past Rafael, Klotzbach said.
He said global climate patterns such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) favor storm formation. The MJO is an eastward-moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It influences weather, including hurricane formation, around the globe.
Atlantic storm tracker
Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: National Hurricane Center tracks another storm. Will hurricane hit US?
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