Poll Tracker: Ecuador’s 2025 General Elections

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Sworn into office as the world’s youngest elected head of state in November 2023, 37-year-old President Daniel Noboa Azín will again have to prove his electoral savvy just a year and a half after winning Ecuador’s last presidential vote. Noboa has been serving the remainder of former President Guillermo Lasso’s (2021–2023) term after the latter triggered special elections when he dissolved the National Assembly in May 2023 to avoid an impeachment vote.

Although there are 15 other hopefuls on the ballot this February, polls suggest Noboa will face off against a familiar opponent: former Assemblywoman Luisa González. Noboa defeated González in 2023’s runoff election with 52 percent of the vote to her 48 percent. González is the candidate of the Citizen Revolution Movement (RC), a party led by self-exiled ex-President Rafael Correa (2007–2017).

Other candidates include businessman and former President of the National Assembly Henry Kronfle of the Social Christian Party (PSC) and Leonidas Iza of the Pachakutik Plurinational Movement, a party associated with the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE), an influential indigenous rights organization of which Iza is president. Presidential contenders are seeking to sell voters on their plans to address persistent security and electricity crises that top citizens’ list of concerns.

Legislative elections for an expanded 151-seat National Assembly will run concurrently with the first round of the presidential election on February 9. If no presidential candidate earns over 50 percent of the vote in the first round, or 40 percent with an advantage of at least 10 percentage points over the closest competitor, a runoff vote between the top two candidates will be held on April 13. All elected officials will begin a four-year term in May 2025.

Voting is obligatory for all Ecuadoran citizens between the ages of 18 and 64. It is optional for 16 to 17-year-olds and those 65 and older, as well active military, people with disabilities, and Ecuadorans abroad, who can vote at their nearest consulate. Around 13.8 million citizens can vote in this year’s election. Voter turnout has ranged between 80 and 83 percent since 2013.

Will Noboa retain enough support to achieve his first full presidential term? Can González leverage her party’s organizational capacity to become Ecuador’s first elected female president? AS/COA Online looks at the data.

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