Building a nationwide network
However, it’s far from clear that the MLP can achieve a MAS-like dominance of the Guatemalan political scene.
Indigenous politics in Guatemala are divided – another party, WINAQ, counts Rigoberta Menchú among its prominent members, and official statistics show a roughly equal number of members for each party. After the MLP won just one seat in Congress 2019, Cabrera claimed the disappointing result was due to electoral fraud. (Freedom House, a democracy watchdog, called the results of the 2019 election “credible,” but also noted irregularities including voter intimidation.) A dozen CODECA members were killed in the 18 months prior to the election, according to the International Federation for Human Rights.
The MLP’s unapologetically left-wing language and stances on nationalizing energy distribution alienate some voters. Others may be convinced by opinions voiced in Guatemalan media and government that the MLP and CODECA are dangerous organizations. One columnist for República recently called CODECA “criminal terrorists and thieves.” Considering the violence CODECA has faced, some indigenous Guatemalans may feel it is safer not to stick their own necks out by associating with the MLP.
Still, some analysts say the party has a good chance of expanding its representation in the legislature in next year’s election. CODECA is unlikely to unite indigenous voters, but it could be an important part of a growing opposition coalition. Its rhetoric has already had an impact in the broader political scene, as calls for a new plurinational constitution become more common in other parties and the media.
Intent on playing the long game, the MLP has been working to expand its support in urban areas, approaching white-collar groups as well as prominent figures in other social movements. That may pay dividends down the road, as many Guatemalans want change to the country’s status quo. Though the country’s economy has endured the pandemic in tolerable shape, expected to grow by 4% in 2022, inequality and malnutrition rates are high. President Alejandro Giammattei is currently continuing a crackdown on the country’s judiciary and anticorruption prosecutors as new allegations of corruption have emerged against him. Cabrera and the MLP were at the forefront of protests demanding Giammattei’s resignation last August.
“People in general are just tired of business as usual,” said Wer. “But I don’t know if they’re prepared to trust indigenous candidates.”
As for Cabrera herself: MLP spokespeople say their presidential candidate for the 2023 elections will be chosen in consultation with the organization’s grassroots, but Cabrera is widely expected to be the nominee again next year. The results will test the MLP’s potential for growth in years to come – and the strength of Guatemalan democracy.
This story has been updated to clarify the range of estimates of the size of Guatemala’s indigenous people.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Reading Time: 5 minutesBurns is editor and social media manager at AQ.
Tags: Democracy in Latin America, Guatemala, Indigenous Rights in Guatemala, Indigenous Women
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Publish date : 2022-03-09 03:00:00
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