U.S. President Donald Trump inherited a lot of headaches in Latin America, from unprecedented migration to metastasizing organized crime. In Guatemala, however, reformist President Bernardo Arevalo presents a chance to shore up Central America’s largest economy, strike a blow against corruption and reduce migration. But to seize this opportunity, Trump will have to avoid repeating the costliest mistake he made in the region during his first term.
Getting Arevalo into office in Guatemala was former President Joe Biden’s biggest accomplishment in Latin America. Arevalo, a bookish former diplomat, unexpectedly finished first in the country’s crowded first-round presidential election in 2023. That set off a furious but unsuccessful campaign by a small but powerful group of conservative economic actors and corrupt judges and prosecutors to disqualify him and his Movimiento Semilla, or Seed Movement. Their crusade ramped up after Arevalo overwhelmingly defeated former first lady Sandra Torres in the second-round voting to win the presidency.
The Biden administration, with bipartisan support, played a leading role in defending Arevalo, using individual sanctions and travel bans on hundreds of Guatemalan lawmakers and oligarchs to keep him on the ballot. And after he won, Biden thwarted attempts to derail the six-month presidential transition, a campaign that Arevalo described as a “slow-motion coup.” The senior U.S. diplomat for Latin America warned that any moves to keep Arevalo from taking office would “be met with a strong US response.” Even so, his fate was uncertain until he was sworn in hours past schedule, amid a last-ditch effort to stop the inauguration.
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Publish date : 2025-01-22 00:49:00
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