The threat of life-threatening flooding and mudslides continues even though a strengthening tropical storm, named Sara, is no longer forecast to become a major hurricane before moving onshore in Central America, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
The slow-moving tropical storm will still be close enough to the warm waters of the Caribbean to maintain or gain some strength. As of Thursday evening, maximum winds were 40 mph. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal to the Nicaraguan border, and a tropical storm watch is in effect for northeastern Nicaragua.
“Because the center has formed so close to land, peak wind intensity will be limited,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
Due to the potential for enough rain to threaten lives and property and to help with planning, AccuWeather meteorologists dubbed it a tropical rainstorm well before the National Hurricane Center named it Tropical Storm Sara.
The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is a 4 for Central America.
The RealImpact scale takes into consideration much more than wind intensity, the only aspect of the storm used for the Saffir-Simpson scale. The RealImpact factors in rainfall, flooding, mudslides, storm surge, population density and economic losses in addition to wind damage.
Rain may pour down for days on the northern parts of Nicaragua and Honduras before shifting to eastern parts of Guatemala, Belize and southeastern Mexico this weekend.
A general 8-12 inches will fall in this zone, but a large pocket of 12-18 inches of rain is forecast from northern Honduras and Nicaragua, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 50 inches.
“This amount of rain will trigger major flash flooding and mudslides with the potential for catastrophic loss of life and tremendous damage,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter warned.
Some communities could be cut off for days due to washed-out roads and bridges or blocked by debris flows. Demands for rescue and recovery efforts, as well as food and medical supplies, will be great in the wake of the storm in the region.
Because of Sara’s proximity to the Caribbean for several days, it will likely not unwind fully. As a result, winds, waves and storm surge will blast the coast of Honduras, eastern Guatemala, Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. Sporadic power outages are likely due to strong winds.
Sara will spend some time over land in southeastern Mexico, where it may lose wind intensity and slip from a tropical storm to a depression or even a tropical rainstorm once again.
Steering breezes are forecast to pick up Sara and pull it over the Gulf of Mexico, where it may spend two days before tracking into Florida during the middle of next week.
Even as a tropical storm, Sara can still produce a storm surge near and south of landfall in the Florida Peninsula. While this may be relatively minor when compared to Helene, Milton and Debby from earlier this season, it can be significant where dunes and infrastructure remain compromised.
The most significant threat in Florida will be heavy rainfall that can swamp streets, highways and low-lying areas. How significant the rain and flooding are will depend on the intensity and forward speed of Sara.
Wind gusts can be strong enough to lead to sporadic power outages in the Florida Peninsula.
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Publish date : 2024-11-14 05:29:00
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