The Gulf of Mexico’s water pushes up against the beach as Hurricane Helene churns offshore on … [+] September 26, 2024 in St. Pete Beach, Florida.
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Key Facts
The storm formed and was named Thursday afternoon, after the NHC warned Wednesday there was a 90% chance it would turn into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and formation into a tropical storm was “likely.”
The NHC said the storm is expected to bring “heavy rainfall (that) will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua” through early next week.
It has very slow movement as of Thursday afternoon and is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, though NHC said it is “too soon” to determine the impact it could bring to the area, which includes still-recovering Florida.
Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30 and while a storm forming this late in the year would be rare, it’s not unheard of, and the potential formation of Sara comes shortly after Hurricane Rafael struck Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane on Nov. 3.
The National Hurricane Center sent its first Hurricane Hunter flight mission to investigate the storm on Wednesday when it was south of Jamaica.
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What To Watch For
It’s not clear what areas—if any—could get hit by the storm. Though NHC said it’s still too early to know potential impacts, it is encouraging residents in the Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, to regularly monitor updates. Matt Devitt, chief meteorologist at WINK News southwest Florida, said Thursday the models had shifted more west into the Yucatan Peninsula than they were two days ago which could lead to “a much different (more positive) forecast for the Gulf of Mexico and Florida.” USA Today says some potential paths show the storm could move further out into the Atlantic, away from the U.S., or head directly west into Central America.
Big Number
3. That’s how many hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. in November since 1850, the most recent of which was Hurricane Nicole in 2022. Nicole hit as a Category 1 Hurricane near Vero Beach, Florida.
Key Background
If a hurricane gets to Florida next week, it would be the fourth to hit the state this hurricane season and the third in the last eight weeks. Hurricane Helene caused more than 230 deaths as it moved across the Southeast United States in late September and, less than two weeks later, Hurricane Milton killed at least two dozen people in Florida. Hurricane Debby made landfall in Florida in August. With Milton, Florida’s three storms in one year tied 1871, 1886, 1964, 2004 and 2005 for the state’s record for the most landfalling hurricanes on record in a single season. Scientists have long warned that climate change stands to make hurricanes more destructive, and the international scientific group World Weather Attribution estimates Milton would have been a Category 2 hurricane, rather than a Category 3, if not for the changing climate. Researchers also found that storms with Milton’s wind speeds have become 40% more frequent because the climate has warmed by 1.3 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times.
Further ReadingForbesHow Climate Change Is Shaping The Uncertainty Of Hurricane SeasonBy Monica Sanders
ForbesHurricane Rafael Becomes Category 3 Storm Near Cuba—Here’s What To KnowBy Ty RoushForbesHurricane Helene Is a Harbinger of The Climate FutureBy Robert B. TuckerForbesClimate Change Made Hurricane Milton More DestructiveBy Amy FeldmanForbesGovernment Forecasters Issue Most Dire Hurricane Season Prediction In Their History—Here’s WhyBy Brian Bushard
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Publish date : 2024-11-14 06:35:00
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