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More than two weeks since the most important presidential election in Guyana’s history, a clear winner has yet to emerge and tensions in South America’s newest oil-producing nation have been rising.
There have been sporadic outbreaks of violence since the disputed March 2 poll, with youths burning tyres and throwing stones at police in the capital Georgetown. A group of Caribbean leaders have been dispatched to broker peace between the rival camps who claim victory and the Organization of American States has appealed for calm.
At stake is control of the massive deepwater oil deposits that have been discovered off Guyana’s coast. Experts say there are at least 8bn barrels in Guyanese waters and the country could produce 750,000 barrels a day by 2025 — about as much as neighbouring Venezuela now produces. ExxonMobil, which has made more than a dozen oil finds off Guyana in the past five years, in December began production from the Liza field, 100 miles offshore.
A sliver of jungle wedged between Venezuela, Brazil and Suriname on the north-east coast of South America, Guyana has been dependent on exports of sugar, bauxite and rice since independence from Britain in 1966. But the oil wealth has the potential to turn one of the continent’s poorest nations into one of the wealthiest. Roughly the size of mainland Britain, Guyana has a population of fewer than 800,000.
The two main blocs in the election were the APNU-AFC coalition led by incumbent president David Granger, a 74-year-old former military officer, and the People’s Progressive party fronted by former president Bharrat Jagdeo. The PPP candidate is Irfaan Ali, a 39-year-old member of parliament.
Voting was orderly in nine of the country’s 10 regions, but the vote in the critical region four — which includes Georgetown — is at the centre of the dispute. Both sides claimed to have won enough region four votes to give them a slender majority in the 65-seat parliament.
Former president Bharrat Jagdeo of the People’s Progressive party © EPA
Guyana’s electoral commission initially suggested Mr Granger had won region four but others disputed this. Guyana’s chief justice later declared the result void and the OAS said the count should be viewed with “grave suspicion”. Michael Kozak, an acting assistant secretary at the US state department, said in a tweet: “Any government sworn in on the basis of that result would not be legitimate.”
On Sunday, both sides agreed to a national recount to be overseen by the Caricom regional bloc. Mr Granger said it would be completed “as soon as possible”. “I’m committed to the rule of law and the constitution,” he said in a national address. “I will abide by the declarations of the elections commission as I have abided by the rulings of the court.”
The disputed count comes amid raised tensions with Venezuela, which has a longstanding claim to a swath of Guyana and its territorial waters. It has also exposed Guyana’s long-simmering ethnic tensions.
Mr Granger’s party relies on the support of the Afro-Guyanese community that makes up about 30 per cent of the population while Mr Jagdeo’s PPP is backed by Guyanese of Indian decent whose ancestors were shipped to the country by colonial Britain to work as servants and on sugar plantations. They make up about 40 per cent of the population.
Speaking to the Financial Times by telephone last week, Mr Jagdeo said his party would “resist any attempt to swear in the president on the basis of these fraudulent results. If we do not stop this now, Guyana will descend into chaos.”
He flagged the risk of Guyana becoming “another Venezuela” — with two rival camps claiming to be the legitimate government, and warned that “people would take to the streets if they feel cheated”.
Some observers have expressed concerns that if the PPP wins it may try to renegotiate the ExxonMobil production-sharing agreement that lies at the heart of the fledgling oil industry.
But Mr Jagdeo said that was not his intention. Diego Moya-Ocampos, an analyst with IHS Markit in London, said it was “highly unlikely” that either camp would look to revise the deal.
For now, there is an uneasy calm in Georgetown. “Security on the streets is by-and-large stable,” said Dennis Chabrol, a radio journalist in the capital. “We’re just waiting to see how this all plays out.”
Source link : https://www.ft.com/content/3a2e6576-6533-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5
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Publish date : 2020-03-16 03:00:00
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