Norton says ‘data don’t lie’ but challenges World Bank, global institutions’ statistics

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–relies on trusted ‘advisers’ in PNCR camp, ‘real-world’ approach DESPITE inflation being a worldwide challenge, which is exacerbated by different factors, Leader of the People’s National Congress Reform (PNCR), Aubrey Norton, rather than relying on data from credible international institutions, said the party is using what he describes as a “real world” approach. For months, the Opposition has claimed that Guyana is facing a cost-of-living “crisis”, a perspective critics say disregards the government’s initiatives to mitigate the impact of global economic conditions on the local economy. During a press conference on Friday, Norton faced questions on the data underpinning his claims, and appears set on defying global economic consensus.

Asked to elaborate, the Opposition Leader initially cited sources like the World Bank, and mentioned the involvement of his economists. However, when pressed about his team’s credibility, and the positive metrics shared by international agencies, Norton response was that while the World Bank and other institutions are credible, their data “does not reflect reality”. In his own words: “The World Bank is a credible institution; has its own tools, but the most credible institution to determine what is happening in Guyana is the people of Guyana, and the people on the ground; data don’t lie…” While Norton and the PNCR have not provided clear sources for their inflation measurements, contrasting approaches by the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) government underscore an active and transparent economic management strategy aimed at alleviating rising costs. Despite the PNCR’s stance, data from credible sources offer a different view.

The country’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at end of the first half of 2024 was 49.7 per cent, while non-oil was a significant 12.6 per cent. The World Bank and other reputable international institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) have all reported that Guyana’s economic prospects continue to far exceed regional counterparts.

Just February, Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, Kenji Okamura praised the nation’s economic strides, while highlighting the need for balanced development and macroeconomic stability. Okamura was on a high-level two-day visit to Guyana, where he examined several ongoing projects to get a first-hand view of the nationwide transformative growth taking place under the PPP/C Government. “Notwithstanding the recent economic boom, Guyana still faces significant human and infrastructural development needs. I strongly support the authorities’ efforts to improve economic welfare through public investment, while avoiding the non-trivial risk of economic overheating,” Okamura had said. The government’s expansionary fiscal policy, balanced by monetary policy, is deemed appropriate by the IMF, considering the nation’s developmental necessities.

This approach, coupled with measures introduced in 2022 and 2023, has contributed to a decline in the inflation rate, as noted in ECLAC’s Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2023 report. Overall, Guyana’s economic landscape is set to experience continued expansion, with growth averaging 20 per cent expected annually from 2024 to 2028.

The IMF projects that the economy will double by 2028, with sustained non-oil GDP growth at 5.5 per cent as the government continues addressing developmental needs

The World Bank’s latest Macro Economic Outlook report highlights Guyana’s exceptional economic trajectory, including a 33.8% GDP surge in 2023, fuelled by the country’s burgeoning oil sector. The report underscores how these revenues are financing substantial public investments in infrastructure, healthcare, and education, aimed at distributing economic benefits broadly across the nation. Vice-President Dr. Bharrat Jagdeo, in a previous briefing, highlighted the PPP/C’s multi-pronged plan to address issues like inflation head-on, focusing on key sectors impacting daily life.

“We’ve said in five areas; five of the critical areas where global inflation has been raging, that we have managed to intervene through direct government policies, and kept the prices down, or reduced them,” Dr. Jagdeo stated. This approach, according to him, highlights proactive measures in areas such as food production, energy, and essential services to reduce the impact of imported inflation on Guyanese families. As part of this effort, President Dr. Irfaan Ali has introduced a series of cost-of-living relief measures, including a one-off $100,000 cash grant for all Guyanese over the age of 18, an allocation of $10 billion to support NIS contributors, and a deduction of $10,000 per child from taxable income to ease parents’ financial strain.

In the energy sector, the government is targetting a 50% reduction in electricity costs by 2025, projecting consumer savings exceeding $50 billion. Additionally, the government’s agenda includes targetted support for farmers with increased access to farmlands, distribution of free planting materials and fertilisers, and the establishment of farmers’ markets to ensure affordable access to fresh produce. These agricultural initiatives have seen a significant uptick in local crop production, thereby providing both income for farmers and stable prices for consumers. The PPP/C’s track record of direct intervention stands in stark contrast to the Opposition’s vague references to inflation data and ‘shadow’ economists.

While Norton maintains that his team includes qualified economists, he has yet to provide the public with transparent information about the expertise backing the PNCR’s economic assessments. Meanwhile, Norton’s stance continues to face scrutiny, particularly as the PPP/C government has implemented clear policies aimed at stabilising prices for everyday commodities, and safeguarding the purchasing power of Guyanese citizens.

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