Context of the Primary Elections in Honduras and the Role of the United States

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The bilateral relationship between the United States and Honduras has faced many challenges, which have worsened under the Trump administration. Several decision-makers, especially from the Republican Party, see President Xiomara Castro’s government as a threat to bilateral relations due to its political and commercial ties with China and its support for the authoritarian regimes of Nicaragua and Venezuela. During his tour of Central America in early February 2025, Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not include Honduras on his itinerary, sending a strong message.

During its first term, the Trump administration maintained a good diplomatic relationship with former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, who incidentally was extradited to the United States in 2022 and convicted on drug trafficking-related charges in 2024. During the trial, there were also revelations about electoral fraud committed by Hernández during the 2017 elections. A close advisor to President Trump, Roger Stone, however, recently claimed that Hernández was criminalized “because he stood in the way of Honduras’ authoritarian socialist government and its globalist plans to destroy freedom.” These statements raise many questions about the future of U.S.-Honduran relations, despite President Castro’s recent announcement that she will uphold the extradition treaty and cooperate with the Trump administration’s deportation plans, including receiving Venezuelan migrants en route to being repatriated by the Venezuelan government.

Amid this uncertainty, on March 9, Honduras’ political parties will hold primary elections to select their candidates for the general elections on November 30, 2025. Below are key points to consider regarding the primaries and the halted U.S. cooperation in supporting elections in the country:

Three Political Parties with Serious Internal Struggles and Controversial Presidential Candidates

Currently, three political parties are competing in the elections amid a highly polarized political landscape:

Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE), which is openly leftist, has nominated current Defense Secretary Rixi Moncada, who has strong support from President Xiomara Castro and former President Manuel Zelaya. Moncada has maintained close ties with the United States in her current government role, but she must resign to be eligible as a candidate. Another candidate is Rasel Tomé, the current Vice President of Congress, who was sanctioned by the U.S. under Section 353 for corrupt and anti-democratic actors.

The National Party (PN), positioned as right-wing to far-right, has four candidates, including Ana García, the wife of former President Juan Orlando Hernández. Also running is Nasry Asfura, who also currently faces corruption charges. The other candidates are Jorge Zelaya and Roberto Martínez.

The Liberal Party (PL), a centrist party, has nominated Jorge Cálix, a dissident from LIBRE who has been a strong opposition voice. Another contender is Salvador Nasralla, who has actively engaged with U.S. decision-makers and promised to restore ties with Taiwan. Both candidates have cited Presidents Nayib Bukele and Javier Milei as models to follow. Also running are Congresswoman Maribel Espinoza and Luis Zelaya, who has denounced internal irregularities within the PL ahead of the primaries.

There is a possibility that the PL could seek an opposition alliance, especially if Jorge Cálix wins the primary, as he has previously collaborated with the PN.

The Halted U.S. Cooperation Impacts Electoral Institutions and Civil Society

Although the Organization of American States (OAS) will send a technical team for the primaries, there is no guarantee of sufficient funding for a full election observation mission for the November general elections. The ability of national and international civil society organizations to monitor and observe the elections has also been affected by the freezing of U.S. foreign assistance funds. This could significantly impact the integrity of the general elections, as the political context and the complexity of the process require greater oversight.

U.S.-supported international organizations have suspended their technical and financial assistance projects. For example, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), which provided key technical advice to the National Electoral Council (CNE), has halted its support.

Similarly, the National Democratic Institute (NDI) has had to pause efforts to coordinate civil society initiatives through the “Red-H” coalition, which included academia, the private sector, religious groups, and civil society. In countries like Guatemala, such coalitions have been critical in defending democracy and electoral integrity.

Monitoring Campaign Financing and Strengthening the “Unidad de Política Limpia” is Essential

Illicit electoral financing and lack of accountability have severely undermined democratic governance, fueling corruption and structural impunity in Honduras. The trial of Juan Orlando Hernández revealed how drug trafficking and transnational organized crime have infiltrated both local and high-level government, including the armed forces and police.

It is crucial for electoral authorities to properly audit political party funding and for parties to adopt new transparency practices regarding their financing sources. This is essential to prevent criminal networks from influencing the government to secure impunity for their illicit activities, including money laundering and violence.

Electoral regulations require all candidates to open a bank account to receive campaign donations. However, only 1,233 out of 5,800 candidates (21%) have complied with this requirement.

The Clean Politics Unit (Unidad de Política Limpia) faces several challenges in enforcing transparency, including:

A confidentiality agreement from the Institute for Access to Public Information, which prevents the public from knowing who is financing political parties.

The lack of U.S. technical and financial assistance, affecting projects such as a social media monitoring software that the unit can no longer afford.

Risks of Electoral Violence Amid Territorial and Environmental Conflicts

There have been alarming attacks on electoral authorities, as reported by Ana Paola Hall, the president of the National Electoral Council (CNE), who has received threats and intimidation. Electoral violence and attacks on candidates have also increased, with at least three municipal candidates assassinated.

This violence reflects territorial disputes at the municipal level and the power struggles among drug trafficking and organized crime groups. Honduras ranks 10th on the Global Peace Index among 12 Central American and Caribbean countries, driven by internal conflicts, corruption, organized crime, and illicit economies.

Powerful criminal networks and illegal economies, often tied to extractive industries like mining, agriculture, and logging, are encroaching on Indigenous and rural lands. This exploitation fuels violence, forced displacement, and targeted attacks on environmental defenders, as seen in the conflict-ridden Guapinol River region and La Mosquitia.

Conclusion

Honduran authorities must ensure free, transparent, and fair elections. While the National Congress has approved the electoral budget—securing funding for processes like Smartmatic’s data transmission services—it is crucial for decision-makers to make a real commitment to monitoring campaign financing and strengthening inter-institutional coordination, especially with the Electoral Crimes Prosecutor’s Office.

Additionally, the United States should restore cooperation with both electoral institutions and civil society to guarantee electoral integrity, particularly in domestic and international election observation efforts.

At the same time, the U.S. government, through agencies like the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL), must redouble its efforts to combat organized crime—reducing the risks posed by illicit electoral financing and political violence at both municipal and national levels.

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Context of the Primary Elections in Honduras and the Role of the United States

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