Florida could be in the crosshairs of future Tropical Storm Sara
The system expected to become Tropical Storm Sara will bring extreme rainfall to Central America, but it could also be a danger to Florida.
Tropical Depression Nineteen formed Thursday morningThe system is expected to become tropical Storm Sara later todayIt’s too soon to tell how strong it will get or whether it will threaten Florida
A tropical depression that formed in the Caribbean this morning is expected to become Tropical Storm Sara later today, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.
AccuWeather forecasters say depending on what happens next, it could strike Florida next week, making it the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the state this year.
“Wind shear remains negligible over much of the Caribbean, and waters are plenty warm (in the 80s F),” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said, “And now, with showers and thunderstorms beginning to gather, it will likely not be much longer until the tropical depression organizes into a tropical storm.”
The storm, now Tropical Depression 19, is expected to continue moving west until Friday, the NHC said, possibly making landfall in Honduras. Forecasters predict heavy rains and flooding over parts of Central America, but what it does next depends on several factors.
If it moves inland, it could weaken before re-entering the Gulf.If it stays offshore, it could continue to strengthen in the warm water under the same sorts of conditions that produced hurricanes Rafael, Milton and Helene.If the dome of high pressure currently positioned along the southern Atlantic coast of the United States stays where it is and the approaching cold front slows down, it could steer the storm into Central America or southeastern Mexico where it may not have time to regain hurricane strength before threatening Florida, according to AccuWeather forecasters.If the high pressure moves away and the front arrives, the potential hurricane would have a clear track to move toward Florida as a stronger storm.
“If it has spent days over land, that could mean a less-defined low merging with the front, with impacts mostly in the form of enhanced showers and thunderstorms across the state,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at Tallahassee-based WeatherTiger.
“If it has spent no or limited time over Central America, a legitimate hurricane threat to the Florida peninsula is a realistic scenario. Most likely, that conditional threat would focus on Southwest Florida or the Keys, with the potential for crossover impacts in Southeast Florida, as in 1999’s Irene or 2005’s Wilma,” he said.
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression Nineteen
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The next named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season would be Sara.
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 4 a.m. EST Thursday, Nov. 14:
Tropical Depression Nineteen: What you should know
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Location: 15.9N 82.2W, 250 miles east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, 90 miles northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras borderMaximum sustained winds: 35 mphPresent movement: West at 15 mphMinimum central pressure: 1004 MBHow strong is Tropical Depression 19 and where is it going?
At 7 a.m. EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 82.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph. This motion should continue through today, taking the system across the western Caribbean Sea. The depression is expected to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening if it remains over water.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression Nineteen, future Tropical Storm Sara
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression Nineteen
Watches, warnings issued
For an explanation of what the watches and warnings mean, scroll to the bottom of this story.
Hurricane watch:
Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua BorderThe Bay Islands of Honduras
Tropical storm warning:
Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua BorderThe Bay Islands of Honduras
Tropical storm watch:
Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto CabezasWill Tropical Depression Nineteen be the next hurricane to hit Florida?
It’s too soon to tell if it will, although some models suggest it could curve up and hit the state.
AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno says families, businesses, emergency officials and government leaders across southern and central Florida need to be prepared for potential impacts next week.
“This is a recipe for explosive intensification,” Rayno said. “Everyone needs to be prepared for the possibility of a hurricane landfall along the Gulf coast of Florida next week. It’s time to get ready.”
Key messages from the National Hurricane CenterThrough early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that area.The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Depression Nineteen get?As of 4 a.m.: 35 mph12 hours: 40 mph24 hours: 45 mph36 hours: 60 mph48 hours: 65 mph, near the coast60 hours: 65 mph, near the coast72 hours: 60 mph, inland96 hours: 65 mph, over water120 hours: 50 mph, inlandWhat impact could Tropical Depression Nineteen have?
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area beginning late today.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
National Hurricane Center map: What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
When is hurricane season in Florida?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your cityExcessive rainfall forecastStay informed. Get weather alerts via textWhat do the watches and warning mean?
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
What’s next?
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(This story was updated with new information.)
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Publish date : 2024-11-13 23:55:00
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