Warm water in the Caribbean could create a new tropical storm
AccuWeather forecasters say there’s a high chance of a new tropical system in the first week of November.
A tropical depression and possibly a tropical storm is now likely to form in days and is now Invest 97L, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. Tropical Weather Outlook.
The National Hurricane Center said Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft will investigate the system in the Caribbean, near Central America.
Forecasters say there’s a 70% chance Invest 97L will develop in the next two days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. A system farther east, near Puerto Rico, is moving eastward and could deliver thunderstorms over the Greater Antilles before being absorbed into another system.
Meanwhile there’s a named storm far from Florida. Subtropical Storm Patty formed west of the Azores Saturday morning.
What’s all this mean for the coasts of the United States? There are a lot of ifs, and hurricane strikes in November remain rare.
“Most reliable guidance suggests that western flank of that steering high pressure will still extend over the Gulf, keeping a potential storm moving west or northwestward into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico,” said Ryan Truchalat, forecaster-owner of Weathertiger, who provides reports for the USA TODAY Network.
“A minority of model ensemble members have a faster, stronger frontal passage, in which case a storm theoretically near the Yucatan or Cuba might then turn northeast towards Florida towards the end of next week or over the following weekend.”
In short, all clear for Florida and the U.S. this weekend, but stay aware of the situation.
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The next named storms are Rafael and Sara.
Here are details about what’s out there as of 5 p.m. Nov. 2:
Where is Subtropical Storm Patty? Is a hurricane heading toward Florida?
Location: .38.0N, 30.1W about 170 mile west-northwest of the Azores
Maximum Sustained Winds: 65 mph
Present movement: East-southeast at 18 mph
Minimum central pressure: 982 MB
The center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 30.1 West. The storm is moving toward the east-southeast near 18 mph. A faster east-southeastward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the east and east-northeast on Sunday and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Little intensity change is expected today, but gradual weakening is forecast through early next week. Patty could degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles from the center.
Hazards affecting land:
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Azores this weekend.
RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches across the Azores through Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
November brings tropical development closer to Florida, US
Since 1851, three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida in November.
While the months earlier in the Atlantic hurricane season typically see tropical waves emerge off the African coast that give people plenty of advance notice as they move across the Atlantic, that’s not the case for the last month of the season.
“As we move into early November, the focus for tropical development shifts closer to the United States. Typically, the areas of focus late in the season are the Caribbean and off the Southeast coast,” DaSilva said.
Invest 97L could form late this week in Caribbean
Invest 97L in Southwestern Caribbean Sea: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 70 percent.Formation chance through 7 days: high, 80 percent.What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Near the Greater Antilles: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and gusty winds extending from near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola northeastward for a few hundred miles are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles.
By early next week, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low-pressure area over the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next few days across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.Formation chance through 7 days: low, 10 percent.Who is likely to be impacted?
Waters in the Caribbean remain warm enough to help foster tropical development, AccuWeather forecasters said Saturday morning.
Disruptive breezes, called wind shear, also remain low in the region.
“At this time, the most likely broad zone for tropical development would be over the western and central Caribbean, and the time frame for development would be from Saturday to Tuesday,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said, “It’s possible the feature may first evolve somewhere near the large northern islands of the Caribbean– possibly Jamaica.”
Weather watches and warnings issued in FloridaStay informed. Get weather alerts via textWhen is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
Countdown clock: When will hurricane season end?Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your cityWhat’s next?
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(This story has been updated to add new information.)
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Publish date : 2024-11-02 08:47:00
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