Hurricane Rafael forms in Caribbean as it approaches Cayman Islands, heads toward Cuba

The expected path of Rafael as of 10 a.m. EST on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024.

Nikki Nolan/CBS News

“Steady to rapid intensification is forecast over the next 24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba,” forecasters said in an update early Tuesday morning.

The hurricane center said the heaviest rainfall was forecast to hit Jamaica on Tuesday, with Cuba likely to face a strengthened storm by Wednesday. Rainfall will likely be accompanied by hurricane conditions in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and possibly in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Wednesday.

A composite satellite image provided by the National Hurricane Center shows Tropical Storm Rafael churning just southwest of Jamaica in the Caribbean at 6:50 a.m. Eastern, Nov. 5, 2024.

NOAA/National Hurricane Center

“Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba where rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches are expected,” the hurricane center said Tuesday morning, adding that “isolated higher totals up to 10 inches” could be seen in some parts of Jamaica and Cuba.

Heavy rainfall was expected to spread north into Florida and elsewhere in the southeast U.S. by the middle or end of the week, with as much as 3 inches forecast for the lower and middle Florida Keys.

CBS News meteorologist Nicolette Nolan said forecasting models weren’t clear enough as of Monday to predict where Rafael would head once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, “but the Gulf coasts from Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida need to be on alert for impacts at the end of the week.”