I break down how this one should play out in our Jamaica vs. USA predictions and free betting picks for Thursday, November 14.
Jamaica vs USA picks and predictions
My best bet:
Draw/USA + Under 2.5 (+102 at TonyBet)
My analysis
This is a tricky match to find value on, but thankfully, TonyBet has some great combo plays — one of which we’re targeting in what should be a cagey affair.
Thursday night’s match is the first of a two-legged tie, and Pochettino will want to get back to the mainland with a result and an opportunity to win in front of the American fans. And given his past tendencies with club sides, he favors keeping a clean sheet away from home in these types of fixtures over going for a win.
As such, I’m anticipating a frustrating day for the Reggae Boyz as they face their first true test under McClaren. In their four Nations League matches since his appointment, Jamaica have won two and drawn two, but two of those outings were scoreless draws, and only one — a 2-1 victory over Honduras — saw more than two goals scored.
None of the teams Jamaica faced were of the caliber of the Americans. Honduras is 77th in the FIFA rankings, and Jamaica drew 0-0 after winning 2-1 away in their two recent meetings. And it’s also worth noting Jamaica won 2-0 against Nicaragua in a match where they were out-shot 17-7, and defeated Honduras despite conceding 19 shots while attempting just nine.
The Americans are going to be without numerous key players, but they’ll still have a better overall roster. Furthermore, they’ll have the most dangerous player on the pitch in Christian Pulisic, who’s in the best form of his professional career and crushing it with AC Milan.
Pochettino will have his side set up to limit Jamaica’s counter-attacking threat while looking to cash in on Pulisic’s set-piece delivery and playmaking prowess. He’ll be content with a draw or a low-scoring victory, allowing him to come back home and potentially rotate his side to preserve player fitness.
Jamaica haven’t defeated the Americans since the 2019 Gold Cup. Since then, they’ve managed just two draws in six matches — both of which have come in the last three meetings. That includes a 1-1 stalemate in a 2021 World Cup qualifying match at home.Â
Jamaica will look to absorb pressure and hit on the break, but the Yanks will get the job done again, playing smart and getting a result in a low-scoring affair. Given the strong likelihood of such a result, getting plus-money odds on top of it is just a bonus.Â
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Jamaica vs USA odds
Jamaica vs USA live odds
Jamaica
USA
+254
Moneyline
-103
+220
Draw
+220
Over 2.5 (+114)
Total
Under 2.5 (-176)
Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
Jamaica vs USA side and Over/Under analysis
At -103, the USA are favored to win on the 3-way moneyline. Jamaica is getting +254 to win, with the draw priced at +220
There’s solid value on the draw, as I’m projecting this as a 1-1 result. It would mark the third draw in four meetings. That said, the Americans have lost their last two matches away to CONCACAF foes.
The Under is juiced heavily here, with -176 on Under 2.5, while the Over pays at +114.Â
Six of the USA’s last eight matches have seen two or fewer goals, with three of Jamaica’s four matches under McClaren also seeing less than three goals.Â
Jamaica vs USA game info
Location:
National Stadium, Kingston, JM
Date:
Thursday, 11-14-2024
Time:
8:00 p.m. ET
TV:
TNT
Weather:
86F, 11 mph winds, 90% PoP.
Jamaica vs USA key injuries
Jamaica: No key injuries.
USA: Chris Richards D (Questionable), Folarin Balogun F (Out), Josh Sargent F (Out), Tyler Adams M (Out), Haji Wright F (Out), Sergino Dest D (Out), Gio Reyna M (Out), Tim Weah F (Out).Â
Not intended for use in MA.
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