Let’s keep a cool head and an open mind about political polling

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Voters should not allow themselves to be heavily influenced by poll results.

As we get deeper into the political silly season, there are many things that are bound to increase.

High on the list will be a tissue of outright lies, innuendoes, obfuscations, disinformation and misinformation, and a lot of negative verbal diarrhoea as the gladiatorial contest between the two major political parties becomes more fully engaged.

This will be consistent with the post-truth culture in which we are living and people’s willingness to ditch moral principles in service to perceived needs and wants.

The use of social media as a propaganda tool will be on full display in this endeavour. There will be violent rhetoric as those so disposed will savage the character and reputation of their perceived enemies. There could be physical violence, but it now seems the case that physical political violence of the sort we witnessed in the run-up to the 1980 General Election has waned considerably.

This is largely due to the reforms of our electoral process, culminating in the formation of the Electoral Commission of Jamaica. This body has deservedly earned international recognition as one of the best in the world.

We must be very grateful for the work the commission has done and guard its integrity jealously. It is indeed refreshing that political violence with the use of the gun has not been a part of the political architecture of political campaigns for at least a decade.

This is not something that can be said of many countries in the world. The recently concluded Mexican presidential election was characterised by bloodletting. Political violence was a prominent feature and candidates were killed.

In recent times we have witnessed the disturbing trend in what was once considered the bastion of democracy and free and fair elections, the United States. Last Friday, at a brief appearance at a White House press conference, President Joe Biden was asked about the spectre of violence in the upcoming election. He said the elections will be fair and honest, but he could not guarantee that there would not be political violence. His latter remark had as its backdrop the attempt by the loser of the presidential election in 2020, Donald Trump, to incite violence in order to prevent the certification of the Electoral College votes on January 6, 2021.

This was a stunning admission on the part of a sitting US president. To even admit that there could be the possibility of violence was tragic enough to hear, but what struck me in hearing the remark was what appeared to be a kind of resignation that violence was inevitable, as if there is not much that his Administration could do about it.

He might have been pressed for time, but President Biden should at least have made clear that those who foment violence must expect to feel the full weight of the law enforcement mechanism in the country. He should have stated categorically his Administration’s commitment to maintain peace and security.

The admission of the possibility of violence in US elections is a clear indication of how far the country has fallen on the totem pole of respectability in which it has been held in the world.

The international community has always accepted without question that America was the beacon for free and fair elections — free of violence or intimidation. That is why, unquestionably, America could bring a high moral approach to criticising elections in other countries. To many, it had earned the moral right to do that.

But since Trump the country is fast losing this status. If Trump should ever regain power expect to see the final nail driven in the coffin of free and fair elections in America. He has, in fact, boasted that after this election there is no reason for anyone to vote again. Whew!

So, as we engage the election, we must do so with our eyes wide open. We must be especially cognisant of the polling data we imbibe. We must always remember that polls are a mere snapshot of political sentiments at a given time. It is just a small sliver of opinion that is captured in a sample of people polled. They are influenced by whatever emotions people bring to issues that they feel strongly about.

They seldomly, if ever, reflect a compelling sentiment of how the wider population feels. In this regard, a second look at the assessment of Finance Minister Dr Nigel Clarke in the Bluedot poll in which, on a sliding scale of 1-10, up to five being negative, a negative rating cannot be concluded as a thoroughgoing definition of his performance as the minister of finance. Not when previous polls have shown him consistently as a top performer in the Holness Administration and his performance as a finance minister being among the best we have seen in the history of the country. To use this sliding scale assessment as a barometer of his performance is skewed when compared to other variables. It does not reflect a true assessment of his worth.

I just use this example to say that we should be careful of how much we depend on polling data in coming to conclusions about the relative worth or otherwise of a person or a political party for that matter. Polls in America show Trump neck and neck with Vice-President Kamala Harris, even though many prominent Republicans have endorsed her candidacy. To what extent do these polls capture the national sentiment on abortion and the number of young women who will be voting for the first time because of this issue with a woman on the ticket? I do not think those who are inclined to be bigoted and misogynistic can overcome this awesome, largely silent force.

I for one do not believe that the election is as close as the polls make it out to be. There is a silent, angry majority whose sentiments on abortion, the threat to the country’s democratic way of life, and judgement on Trump’s unfitness for office will never be captured in the competitive polling that is done by American polling organisations, so let us keep an open mind and a cool head and not allow ourselves to be overwhelmed by what could be mere snapshots of emotionalism.

Dr Raulston Nembhard is a priest, social commentator, and author of the books Finding Peace in the Midst of Life’s Storms; Your Self-esteem Guide to a Better Life; and Beyond Petulance: Republican Politics and the Future of America. He hosts a podcast — Mango Tree Dialogues — on his YouTube channel. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or stead6655@aol.com.

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