Louisiana on Alert as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eyes Gulf Coast

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As of Sunday afternoon, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (PTC#18) has developed in the western Caribbean Sea and is expected to intensify as it moves toward the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the disturbance has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and is located about 345 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. According to meteorologists, it is anticipated to become a tropical storm—potentially named "Rafael"—by Monday as it nears Jamaica, and it could reach Category 1 hurricane strength by the time it approaches Cuba on Wednesday.

Louisiana residents may feel the impacts by Friday or the weekend, though uncertainty remains regarding its exact path and intensity. KATC Chief Meteorologist Rob Perillo noted on Twitter, “The system is expected to become a tropical storm, 'Rafael,' and quite possibly a hurricane upon entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico.” Perillo also stressed that the forecast track shows the system nearing the Gulf Coast states around Saturday, possibly as a tropical storm or even near hurricane strength. However, strong wind shear and dry air in the northern Gulf could weaken the storm as it approaches Louisiana.

If it does make landfall in Louisiana, it would be the latest hurricane to make landfall in the state, setting a record.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued hurricane and tropical storm warnings for parts of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Heavy rain, high surf, and storm surge are expected in those areas over the next few days. Forecast models suggest that after passing through the Caribbean, the system could impact states along the Gulf Coast, including Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, or the Florida Panhandle, by this weekend. However, the NHC has emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the storm’s long-range forecast.

This potential storm raises concerns for some as the weekend is packed with events across Louisiana, including UL Lafayette's Homecoming, Saints taking on the rival Falcons in New Orleans, and the highly anticipated LSU-Alabama game in Baton Rouge. While it's too early to predict specific weather impacts for these events, meteorologists stress that it’s never too early to be prepared and stay informed.

Meteorologists, including the Acadiana Weather Experts from our media partners at KATC, are watching the storm’s progress closely. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are conducting reconnaissance flights over the system, and two additional missions are scheduled within the next 24 hours. As more data becomes available, the NHC will update its forecast to reflect any changes in the storm's projected path or intensity.

For now, Louisiana residents are advised to monitor updates from our trusted local meteorologists and the National Hurricane Center as PTC#18 makes its way into the Gulf. More information is expected in the coming days as models better define the storm’s likely impact, though caution and preparedness remain the message for all Gulf Coast residents.

LOOK: The most expensive weather and climate disasters in recent decadesStacker ranked the most expensive climate disasters by the billions since 1980 by the total cost of all damages, adjusted for inflation, based on 2021 data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The list starts with Hurricane Sally, which caused $7.3 billion in damages in 2020, and ends with a devastating 2005 hurricane that caused $170 billion in damage and killed at least 1,833 people. Keep reading to discover the 50 of the most expensive climate disasters in recent decades in the U.S. Gallery Credit: KATELYN LEBOFF

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