Population growth in Latin America and the Caribbean falls below expectations

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SANTIAGO, Chile (CMC) — The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) says the population in the region reached 663 million this year, nearly four per cent less than what had been forecast in 2000.

ECLAC released its 2024 Demographic Observatory report which examines the acceleration of demographic changes in the first quarter of the 21st century in the region along with the implications of ageing for the labour force and care.

It said in 2024, Latin America and the Caribbean’s population reached 663 million people, 3.8 per cent less than what had been forecast in the year 2000 when estimates pointed to a total of 689 million people.

“At that time, it was estimated that fertility and mortality rates in Latin America and the Caribbean would be higher than what was effectively recorded between 2000 and 2023, considering trends from the previous decade and what occurred in other regions of the world. Also, these initial projections did not anticipate the increased volume of migration flows in recent years or the significant demographic changes seen during the COVID-19 pandemic,” ECLAC said.

According to the 2024 Demographic Observatory Population Prospects and Rapid Demographic Changes in the First Quarter of the 21st Century in Latin America and the Caribbean, currently, the region’s population is projected to peak at approximately 730 million in 2053.

The document, prepared by the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Center (CELADE)-Population Division of ECLAC, emphasises that the growth rate of the region’s population is ever lower.

In the 1960s, annual growth rates topped 2.5 per cent. However, starting in the middle of that decade, a decreasing trend began, due especially to declining fertility. Although the 2000 revision foresaw that this downward trend would continue, the 2024 data shows that, in actuality, the decline was faster than anticipated.

“This accelerated demographic transition has prompted major shifts in the age structure of the region’s population. In 1950, around 41 per cent of the population was under 15 years of age; today, that proportion has fallen to 22.5 per cent.

“At the same time, the adult population between 15 and 64 years of age went from accounting for 55.6 per cent of the total population in 1950 to representing 67.6 per cent in 2024. It is forecast that in 2050, around 18.9 per cent of the region’s population will be made up of people over 65 – approximately double the proportion observed in 2024 (9.9 per cent).

“This will mean an increase from the 65.4 million people over 65 years of age in 2024 to an estimated 138.0 million in 2050,” ECLAC said.

The 2024 Demographic Observatory stresses that the rapid demographic shift that has been observed in Latin America and the Caribbean presents challenges and opportunities for the region in the context of accelerated population ageing, with a significant increase in the population’s median age.

In 1950, the report indicates, the median age of Latin America and the Caribbean’s population was 18; by 2024, that value had risen to 31 years of age; and by 2050, it is forecast that the median age will be approximately 40.

“The birth rate has declined more quickly than what was expected at the start of the century and neither the rise in mortality due to COVID-19, nor the increase in migration flows, was foreseen at that time,” said ECLAC’s Executive Secretary, José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs.

“We at ECLAC call for promoting the population’s healthy ageing and offering everyone, especially lower-income groups, access to healthcare and social protection systems that would reduce the impact of greater demand for care on families,” he added.

ECLAC said that the change in the population’s age structure and the persistent decline in fertility to below-replacement levels pose additional challenges to those already existing in Latin America and the Caribbean in terms of socioeconomic inequality and access to state-provided goods and services.

It said ageing has an impact in all areas of public policy and, in particular, entails an increase in demand for long-term care services which poses challenges but also opportunities.

Salazar-Xirinachs said it is crucial that the situation of women be given special consideration since they are generally the ones who absorb the work of caring for children and older persons within families.

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