With the sole exception of the 50 people on Pitcairn Island, the United Kingdom liquidated its holdings in the Pacific Ocean long ago. France, by contrast, has a half million citizens in the Pacific.
Author of the article:
Gwynne Dyer  • Special to Postmedia News
Published Sep 09, 2024  • Last updated 1 hour ago  • 3 minute read
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With the sole exception of the 50 people on Pitcairn Island, the United Kingdom liquidated its holdings in the Pacific Ocean long ago. France, by contrast, has a half million citizens in the Pacific.
This gives rise to much performative outrage in post-colonial countries: Why has France still not given these people their independence? The post-colonial countries are mostly poor, whereas the old imperial powers are rich, but not very generous. The ex-colonies need leverage, and colonial guilt is a good lever.
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For this tactic to work well, however, the people in these remaining European overseas possessions should be fiercely demanding their independence. The awkward truth is that most of them are quite happy to remain colonies if the money is good.
The latest example is New Caledonia, a Belgium-sized island in the South Pacific. The population was mostly Kanak (native-born Melanesians) until around 50 years ago, when various mining enterprises caused a surge in immigration from other Pacific islands and even from France.
This is a potential grievance well worth exploiting. As a result of that immigration, the Kanak share of the population has dropped to just more than one-third of the total (112,000 of the island’s 300,000 people).
 No doubt many Kanaks want independence, especially young, rural Kanaks who see it as a possible source of protected jobs for these true sons of the soil. However, the other, now more numerous ethnicities will oppose it for the same reason. Independence would effectively make them second-class citizens.
But justice has been done. Under the 1998 Nouméa Accord, France agreed to hold three referendums on independence, and to restrict the vote only to those who were already resident (still a Kanak majority at that time).
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In the first referendum, in 2018, with all the Kanaks but only long-established residents of other ethnicities eligible to vote, 56 per cent of the voters supported remaining part of France.
In the second referendum in 2020, with the same electorate (all the Kanaks but only about half of the total adult population), that dropped to 53 per cent in favour of staying French.
And the pro-independence party boycotted the third referendum, in 2021, ostensibly because COVID-19 made voting difficult, but really because their own soundings revealed they would lose again. Better to walk out and keep the issue alive than to lose a third consecutive vote.
France now regards the independence issue as closed, and last northern spring the French National Assembly moved to restore the vote to most of the people who had been excluded from the referendums. All those who have been in New Caledonia for at least ten years (i.e. 2014) will be able vote in future elections.
So, what was the pro-independence Kanak faction to do? Launch a national liberation war, obviously, or at least a plausible facsimile thereof.
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Last May, Kanak militants put up roadblocks and made sweeping demands for independence with none of that voting nonsense. Nine people were killed, a state of emergency was declared, French President Emmanuel Macron paid an emergency visit and nothing much happened.
It’s over, really, for the same reason other French possessions around the world – French Polynesia in the South Pacific, Mayotte and Réunion in the Indian Ocean, Martinique and Guadeloupe in the Caribbean, and French Guiana in South America – all choose to remain French. The bribe for doing so is irresistible.
If you live in an overseas department of France, then you get a good, free education and a French level of public and social services. Per capita income in New Caledonia is ten times that in other nearby island nations such as Fiji, Vanuatu, Samoa, and the Solomon Islands.Â
Call it bribery if you like, but the more polite word is pragmatism.
Gwynne Dyer is an independent journalist based in London, England.
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