Donald Trump takes the stage during a campaign rally on November 04, 2024, in Raleigh, North … [+] Carolina. Donald Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs on goods from Mexico even though the Mexican government has already helped reduce illegal entry into the United States. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
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Donald Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs on goods from Mexico even though the Mexican government has already helped reduce illegal entry into the United States. Economists warn imposing a 25% tariff on goods imported into America from Canada and Mexico would harm the three economies and raise prices for U.S. consumers. In part due to Mexico’s cooperation, illegal entry is lower today than when Donald Trump was president. Analysts say his tariff threat and other actions could be counterproductive and upend current U.S.-Mexico cooperation on immigration.
Donald Trump’s Threats On Trade And Immigration
Although Inauguration Day remains several weeks away, Donald Trump has roiled relations with America’s neighbors. “In a post on Truth Social, Mr. Trump mentioned a caravan of migrants making its way to the United States from Mexico, and said he would use an executive order to levy a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico until drugs and migrants stopped coming over the border,” reported the New York Times.
“This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” wrote Trump. “Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem,” he said. “We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!” Trump also said he would impose a 10% tariff on goods from China. “Representatives of China told me that they would institute their maximum penalty, that of death, for any drug dealers caught doing this but, unfortunately, they never followed through,” wrote Trump.
According to the American Action Forum, a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico would cost the average U.S. household approximately $1,700 a year. The dislocation and lost sales experienced by U.S. companies when Canada and Mexico likely retaliate against the tariffs represent additional economic costs.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum speaks during the High Level Summit between Mexican and U.S. … [+] leaders and businessmen at the National Palace in Mexico City on October 15, 2024. In a letter to Donald Trump, Sheinbaum wrote, “It is clear that we must work together to create a new labor mobility model that is necessary for your country.” (Photo by YURI CORTEZ/AFP via Getty Images)
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Illegal Immigration Is Lower Today Than When Trump Was President
Illegal entry is lower today than when Donald Trump left office. In October 2024, there were 56,530 Border Patrol encounters at the Southwest border, a figure well below the 75,316 encounters in January 2021 when Trump was president. Starting in July 2024, encounters remained under the 60,000 level each month. Border Patrol encounters were higher in January 2021, even though the Covid-19 pandemic slowed the economy during Trump’s last month. (In general, the fewer encounters, the less illegal entry.)
Analysts credit the Biden administration’s use of legal pathways, a June 2024 executive order on asylum policy and greater cooperation with Mexico for the significant decline at the border. Given this cooperation, Trump’s threats likely surprised the Mexican government.
“You may not be aware that Mexico has developed a comprehensive policy to assist migrants from different parts of the world who cross our territory en route to the southern border of the United States,” wrote Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum in a letter to Trump. “As a result, and according to data from your country’s Customs and Border Protection, encounters at the Mexico–United States border have decreased by 75% between December 2023 and November 2024. Moreover, half of those who arrive do so through a legally scheduled appointment under the United States’ CBP One program.”
A U.S. Customs and Border Protection agent searches an automobile for contraband in the line to … [+] enter the United States at the San Ysidro Port of Entry on October 2, 2019. When the Trump administration decided in March 2020 to close U.S. ports of entry to nonessential traffic during the Covid-19 pandemic, it accelerated drug traffickers’ shift to fentanyl. (Photo by SANDY HUFFAKER/AFP via Getty Images)
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Trump’s Immigration Policies Contributed To Fentanyl Deaths
In blaming solely Mexico, Canada and China for fentanyl deaths in the United States, it appears Trump has ignored his administration’s policies and the role of Americans’ demand for the drug, which the Mexican president alluded to in her letter.
When the Trump administration decided in March 2020 to close U.S. ports of entry to nonessential traffic during the Covid-19 pandemic, it accelerated drug traffickers’ shift to fentanyl to get more “bang for the buck.” Because fentanyl is a more potent drug than heroin, that shift contributed to an increase in drug overdose deaths.
According to a National Foundation for American Policy analysis, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data show significant increases in the 12-month moving average of drug overdose deaths from synthetic opioids in April, May, June, July and August 2020 that continued through the rest of the year. Precise month-by-month figures on synthetic opioid overdose deaths are unavailable from the CDC. Still, even the 12-month moving averages, which may obscure larger increases in individual months, show a significant rise after the March 2020 closing of U.S.-Mexico ports of entry to nonessential traffic.
Mexico Could Try To Strike A Better Immigration Bargain For Its Citizens
The Mexican government cooperated with the Biden administration, in part because U.S. government officials met them halfway. The Biden administration’s decision to establish humanitarian parole programs proved decisive in reducing illegal entry and gaining Mexico’s cooperation. By allowing 30,000 individuals from Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba and Haiti to enter monthly and obtain work authorization, the Biden administration created a legal pathway, and it encouraged the Mexican government to cooperate and accept a similar number of expelled persons from Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba and Haiti. Expelling people from these four nations to their home countries can be challenging or even impossible.
According to an NFAP analysis, Border Patrol encounters declined by 98% for Cubans, Haitians and Nicaraguans between December 2022 (the month before the parole programs started) and September 2024 while falling by 56% for individuals from non-parole countries.
The incoming Trump administration vows to end the humanitarian parole programs and no longer allow migrants to use the CBP One app to schedule appointments at the border. As a result, it will be up to Mexico to decide whether to continue cooperating with the U.S. government at the same level.
In her letter, President Sheinbaum wrote, “It is clear that we must work together to create a new labor mobility model that is necessary for your country, as well as address the root causes that compel families to leave their homes out of necessity.”
The Mexican government could condition its immigration cooperation on greater labor mobility, particularly for Mexican citizens desiring to work legally in the United States but frustrated by the limited options. A significant percentage of illegal entry into the United States continues to be Mexicans seeking work. Further streamlining the H-2A category for agricultural visas, expanding the H-2B visa category for seasonal nonagricultural jobs and creating a work visa for year-round jobs for Mexicans could be the price the Mexican government requests to act as America’s gatekeeper.
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Publish date : 2024-11-26 09:03:00
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